I need to call a forecast model from R within Anlylogic, and return the resulting outputs in R. It is a specific timeseries that I have built in R, and just copying the coefficients to Anylogic is not efficient. I have seen a couple of older posts on similar questions, but I am not sure I can follow. Any advice would be very appreciated.
I have a regression forecast model that uses predictors to provide a forecast along with Prediction Intervals. I need these outputs to be updated by the different values of the predictors and then used in Anylogic.
Related
I am working with the R programming language. In particular, I am using "Markov Switching Models" for the purpose modelling more complicated dataset with varying degrees of volatility. For this problem, I am using the "MSwM" package in R:
https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MSwM/MSwM.pdf
https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MSwM/vignettes/examples.pdf
I am following the first example from the "vignettes":
#load library
library(MSwM)
#load data
data(example)
#plot data
plot(ts(example))
#fit basic model
mod=lm(y~x,example)
#fit markov switching model:
mod.mswm=msmFit(mod,k=2,p=1,sw=c(TRUE,TRUE,TRUE,TRUE),control=list(parallel=FALSE))
The above code successfully creates the model - 2 "Regimes" have been identified:
Question: I checked the documentation of this package, and there does not seem to be any functions that allow you to predict future values of this time series. I did some research and it seems like the "Markov Switching Model" should allow you to predict future values of a time series, e.g. : https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/90448/how-to-forecast-a-markov-switching-model
OR:
However, there does not seem to be a straightforward way to do this in R. Can someone please suggest how to resolve this problem?
Thanks
I am working on quantile forecasting with time-series data. The model I am using is ARIMA(1,1,2)-ARCH(2) and I am trying to get quantile regression estimates of my data.
So far, I have found "quantreg" package to perform quantile regression, but I have no idea how to put ARIMA-ARCH models as the model formula in function rq.
rq function seems to work for regressions with dependent and independent variables but not for time-series.
Is there some other package that I can put time-series models and do quantile regression in R? Any advice is welcome. Thanks.
I just put an answer on the Data Science forum.
It basically says that most of the ready made packages are using so called exact test based on assumption on the distribution (independent identical normal-Gauss distribution, or wider).
You also have a family of resampling methods in which you simulate a sample with a similar distribution of your observed sample, perform your ARIMA(1,1,2)-ARCH(2) and repeat the process a great number of times. Then you analyze this great number of forecast and measure (as opposed to compute) your confidence intervals.
The resampling methods differs in the way to generate the simulated samples. The most used are:
The Jackknife: in which you "forget" one point, that is you simulate a n samples of size n-1 (if n is the size of the observed sample).
The Bootstrap: in which you simulate a sample by taking n values of the original sample with replacements: some will be taken once, some twice or more, some never,...
It is a (not easy) theorem that the expectation of the confidence intervals, as most of the usual statistical estimators, are the same on the simulated sample than on the original sample. With the difference that you can measure them with a great number of simulations.
Hello and welcome to StackOverflow. Please take some time to read the help page, especially the sections named "What topics can I ask about here?" and "What types of questions should I avoid asking?". And more importantly, please read the Stack Overflow question checklist. You might also want to learn about Minimal, Complete, and Verifiable Examples.
I can try to address your question, although this is hard since you don't provide any code/data. Also, I guess by "put ARIMA-ARCH models" you actually mean that you want to make an integrated series stationary using an ARIMA(1,1,2) plus an ARCH(2) filters.
For an overview of the R time-series capabilities you can refer to the CRAN task list.
You can easily apply these filters in R with an appropriate function.
For instance, you could use the Arima() function from the forecast package, then compute the residuals with residuals() from the stats package. Next, you can use this filtered series as input for the garch() function from the tseries package. Other possibilities are of course possible. Finally, you can apply quantile regression on this filtered series. For instance, you can check out the dynrq() function from the quantreg package, which allows time-series objects in the data argument.
I am new to using R as I usually use Stata. I want to estimate a state space model on some time series data with time varying coefficients. From what I have gathered this is not possible to do in Stata.
I have downloaded the dlm package in R and I am trying to run the dlmModReg command to regress my dependent variable on a single explanatory variable. I would like to allow the intercept and beta coefficient to vary over time.
If anyone could show me an example of the code I want to run I think that would be enough for me to work out how to do this. The examples I have found online are vague or use terminology that I am not familiar with as a new R user. Any help or comments are greatly appreciated.
I am trying to fit a transfer function model using R in order to apply the fitted model to a validation set of data, because SPSS doesn't allow me to (or I don't know how to) compute point forecasts just like the function Arima() from forecast package does. It does let me apply the model, but it does not use the dependet variable's lagged values, that's why I am trying R.
Anyone know how I could get those type of "updated" or validation forecasts using the arimax() function? I am not looking for the following type of predictions:
predict(vixari011, n.ahead=12)
But rather these:
Arima(test$VIX, model = vixari)
From what I have been reading there is no prediction function for the arimax() function, any ideas about how I could forecast to evaluate point-by-point performance? I can just think of computing manually using a spreadsheet...
I had the same problem. I know this post is old but this can help someone.
I used this it worked just fine
forecast(fitted(arimax_ts_model), h=11)
I'm using the fourier() and fourierf() functions in Ron Hyndman's excellent forecast package in R. Looking to verify whether the same terms are selected and used in fourier() and fourierf(), I plotted a few of the output terms.
Below is the original data using ts.plot(data). There's a frequency of 364 in the time series, FYI.
Below is the plot of the terms using fourier(data,3). Basically, it looks like mirror images of the existing data.
Looking at just the sin1 term of the output, again, we get some variation that shows similar 364-day seasonality in line with the data above.
However, when I plot the results of the Fourier forecast using fourierf(data,3, 410) I see the below data. It appears far more smooth than the terms provided by the original fourier function.
So, I wonder how the results of fourier() and fourierf() are related. Is it possible to just see one consolidated Fourier result, so that you can see the sin or cosine result moving through existing data and then through the forecasting period? If not, how can I confirm that the terms created by fourierf() fit the in-sample data?
I want to use it in an auto.arima or glm function with other external regressors like this:
trainFourier<-fourier(data,3)
trainFourier<-as.data.frame(trainFourier)
trainFourier$exogenous<-exogenousData
arima.object<-auto.arima(data, xreg=trainFourier)
futureFourier<-fourierf(data,3, 410)
fourierForecast<-forecast(arima.object, xreg=futureFourier, h=410)
and want to be completely sure that the auto.arima has the proper fitting (using the terms from fourier()) to what I'll put in under xreg for forecast (which has terms from a different function, i.e. ffourier()).
Figured out the problem. I was using both the fda and forecast packages. fda, which is for functional data analysis and regression, has its own fourier() function. If I detach fda, my S1 term from fourier(data,3) looks like this:
which lines up nicely with the Fourier forecast if I use ts.plot(c(trainFourier$S1,futureFourier$S1))
Moral of the story -- watch what your packages supress, folks!