Heres the scenario: Let's say we get dealt 17 cards and want to know the probability of getting a flush (five cards of the same suit) that can only be spades. No other suit matters. We know that one spade in the deck was taken out. So that leaves us with 12 spades left in a 51 card deck. How would we determine the probability of getting five spades if dealt 17 cards?
I'm pretty sure math stack exchange would be more helpful but to calculate this mathematically you should use combinatorics.
The total amount of ways to be dealt 17 cards is 51 Choose 17 (which is around 1.47 x 10^13 ways)
Then we determine how many ways to get a flush (I'm going to assume exactly 5 spades and not more than 5). This is equal to (12 choose 5) * (39 choose 12). The 12 C 5 part accounts for the 5 spades and the 39 C 12 part accounts for the remaining 12 cards that are not spades. (39 = 51 - 12) This value is around 3.09 x 10^12 ways.
The probability is around 20.96%
Related
I'm trying to come up with a way to generate a grid/level from a seed.
I'm thinking of using a 6 x 6 grid with 3, possible tiles in each.
The seed for that would be 108 characters long, i doubt anyone would want to copy 108 char long seed. (the game will probably be on iPhone, so the seed will be entered via keyboard)
Anyways of shortening it?
I thought a fun way would be to use words.
Separate the the grid into three 2 by 6 lines. and have each line represented by an english word.
The player would then just type in 3 words which is a lot easier & gives a kind of name to the level.
Any thoughts on how i could achieve this?
(I'm currently using gamesalad)
Thank you for your time,
Jordan
Shorting the seed.
Well 108 characters is a little over kill. You have 6 by 6 cell so that's 36 cells total. Each cell has 3 different states yet a char has at min 64 different states (A-Z,a-z,0-9, and a few punctuations to keep it simple) So even with 36 character we have way more than we need.
So lets break it down some more. Computers work in binary. A bit is the smallest bit of information it can use. One bit can be on or off so it has 2 possible states. 2 bits can be off,off or off,on or on,off or on,on so that is 4 different states. If we add another bit we get two more states for every previous state so that is 4*2 = 8 states for 3 bits. Times by 2 again for a 4th bit we get 16 states, again for 32 and again for 64 which just happens to be the number of characters we want to use. So it takes 6 bits to store 64 possible states.
Now lets look at the grid. Each cell has 3 states each. So two cells have 9 possible combination 3*3 and for 3 cells its 3*3*3 = 27 next is 3*3*3*3 = 81 or 3 to the power of 4 cells or 3^4 = 81. We can use this trend to work out how many possible combinations there are for all 36 cells. 3 to the power of 36. That is a big number 150,094,635,296,999,121 or One hundred and fifty million billion combinations.
So how many bits do we need to store that number. I could cheat and ask the calculator but that's too easy,
Let's see, 3 cells have 27 combinations and 5 bits have 32. so 3 cells go into 36 cell 12 times and we have 5 bits for every 3 cells so 5*12 is 60bits. That's a nice round number as our chars are 6 bits each we can shove every possible grid combination into 10 char with some to spare. We have 5 spare combinations for every 3 cells so we have 60 combinations spare 12*5. Darn if only we had 4 more combinations that would be 64 which is 2^6 or 6 bits or one char. We can not take away half a character so 10 characters it has to be. BTW 4 combinations is two bits so take that from our 60 char bits and the minimum number of bits to store your grid is 58. 2 to the power of 58 should be just bigger than 3 to the power of 36.
Thus your grid requires 10 chars. Each being any one of ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz0123456789:) perfect (8 bytes 4 spare bits)
I pick my first 10 char seed BLINDMAN67 now what?
I've this following optimization problem. A company produces a product, say Big A. To produce this product, it requires 5 processes. (Please find the detail table below). For each process, there are number of supplier that supply raw material for that particular process. E.g. For process 1, there are 3 supplier 1,2 & 3.
The constrain for the CEO of this company,say C, is that for each process the CEO has to purchase supplies from Supplier 1 first, then for additional supplies from 2nd Supplier and so on.
The optimization problem is C wants 700 units for total material to produce for 1 unit of Big A then how will he do it at minimum cost. How the optimization will change if the amount of units require increases to 1500 units.
I'll be grateful if I get the solution of this answer. But if somebody can suggest me some reference regarding this problem it will be a great help too. I'm mainly using R software here.
Process Supplier Cost Units Cumm_Cost Cumm_Unit
1 1 10 100 10 100
1 2 20 110 30 210
1 3 10 200 40 410
2 1 20 100 20 100
2 2 30 150 50 250
2 3 10 150 60 400
3 1 40 130 40 130
3 2 30 140 70 270
3 3 50 120 120 390
4 1 20 120 20 120
4 2 40 120 60 240
4 3 20 180 80 420
5 1 30 180 30 180
5 2 10 160 40 320
5 3 30 140 70 460
Regards,
I will start by solving the specific problem that you have posted and then will demonsrate how to formulate the problem more abstractively. For simplicity, I will use Excel's Solver add-in to solve the problem, but any configuration of a modeling language (such as AIMMS, AMPL, LINGO, OPL, MOSEL and numerous others) with a solver (CPLEX, GUROBI, GLPK, CBC and numerous others) can be used. If you would like to use R, there exists an lpSolve package that calls the lpSolve solver (which is not the best one in the word to be honest, but it is free of charge).
Note that for "real" (large scale) integer problems, the commercial solvers CPLEX, GUROBI and XPRESS perform a lot better than others. The first completely free solver that performs decently in most tests (including Hans Mittelman's page) is CBC. CBC can be hooked up in excel and solve the built-in solver model without restrictions in the number of constraints or variables, by using this add-in. Therefore, assuming that most CPU is going to be spent by the optimization algorithm, using CBC/OpenSolver seems like an efficient choice.
SPREADSHEET SETUP
I follow some conventions for convenience:
Decision variable cells are marked Green.
Constraints are marked red.
Data are marked grey.
Objective function is marked blue.
First, lets augment the table you presented as follows:
The added columns explained briefly:
Selected?: equals 1 if the (Process, Supplier) combo is allowed to produced a positive quantity, zero otherwise.
Quantity: the quantity produced, defined for each (Process, Supplier) combo.
Max Quantity?: Equals 1 if the Suppliers produces the maximum amount of units for that particular Process.
Quantity UB: equals Units * Selected?. This makes the upper bound either equal to Units, when the Supplier is allowed to produce this Process, or zero otherwise.
Quantity LB: equals Units * Max Quantity?. This is to ensure that whenever the Max Quantity? column is 1, the produced quantity will be equal to Units.
Selection: For the 1st supplier, it equals 0. For the 2nd and 3rd suppliers, it equals the Max Quantity? of the previous supplier (row) minus the Selected? of the current supplier (row).
A screenshot with formulas:
There exist two more constraints:
There must be at least one item produced from each process and
The total number of items should be 700 (or later 1,500).
Here is their setup:
and here are the formulas:
In brief, we use SUMIF to sum the quantities that are specific to each supplier, which we are going to constrain to be more than 1 item for each process.
To finish the spreadsheet setup, we need to calculate the objective function, namely the cost of the allocation. This is easily done by taking the SUMPRODUCT of columns Quantity and Cost. Note that the cumulative quantities are derived data and not very useful in the current context.
After the above steps, the spreadsheet looks like below:
SOLVER MODEL
For the solver model we need to declare
The Objective
The Decisions
The Constraints
The Solver (and tweak some parameters if necessary).
For ease of exposition, I have given each range the name of its header. The solver model looks as follows:
It should all be explanatory, except possibly the Selected >= 0 part. The column selected equals the difference between the binary max Quantity of the previous supplier minus the Selected of the current supplier. Selected >= 0 => max Quantity of previous supplier >= Selected of current supplier. Therefore, if the previous supplier does not produce at max quantity (binary = 0), the current supplier cannot produce.
Then we need to make sure that the solver setting are OK:
and solve the problem.
Solution for req = 700 :
As we see, the model tries to avoid procedures 3 and 5 as much as possible, and satisfies the constraint "at least 1 item per process" by picking up exactly 1 item for processes 3 and 5. The objective function value is 11,710.
Solution for req = 1,500 :
Here we need more capacity, but yet process 3 seems expensive and the model tries to avoid it by allocating whatever is necessary (just 1 unit to supplier 1).
I hope this helps. The spreadsheet can be downloaded here. I include the definition of the mathematical model below, in case you would like to transfer it to another language.
MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
A formal definition of your problem is as follows.
SETS:
PARAMETERS:
Decisions:
Objective:
Constraints:
Constraint explanation:
C1: A supplier cannot produce anything from a process if he has not been allocated to that process.
C2: If a supplier's maximum indicator is set to 1, then the production variable should be the maximum possible.
C3: We cannot select supplier s for process p if we have not produced the max quantity available from the previous supplier s_[-1].
C4: We need to produce at least 1 item from each process.
C5: the total production from all processes and suppliers should equal the required amount.
Looks like you should look at the simplex algorithm (or some existing implementation of it).
Wikipedia has a fairly nice description of the algorithm, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simplex_algorithm
I am not good at probability and I know it's not a coding problem directly. But I wish you would help me with this. While I was solving a computation problem I found this difficulty:
Problem definition:
The Little Elephant from the Zoo of Lviv is going to the Birthday
Party of the Big Hippo tomorrow. Now he wants to prepare a gift for
the Big Hippo. He has N balloons, numbered from 1 to N. The i-th
balloon has the color Ci and it costs Pi dollars. The gift for the Big
Hippo will be any subset (chosen randomly, possibly empty) of the
balloons such that the number of different colors in that subset is at
least M. Help Little Elephant to find the expected cost of the gift.
Input
The first line of the input contains a single integer T - the number
of test cases. T test cases follow. The first line of each test case
contains a pair of integers N and M. The next N lines contain N pairs
of integers Ci and Pi, one pair per line.
Output
In T lines print T real numbers - the answers for the corresponding test cases. Your answer will considered correct if it has at most 10^-6 absolute or relative error.
Example
Input:
2
2 2
1 4
2 7
2 1
1 4
2 7
Output:
11.000000000
7.333333333
So, Here I don't understand why the expected cost of the gift for the second case is 7.333333333, because the expected cost equals Summation[xP(x)] and according to this formula it should be 33/2?
Yes, it is a codechef question. But, I am not asking for the solution or the algorithm( because if I take the algo from other than it would not increase my coding potentiality). I just don't understand their example. And hence, I am not being able to start thinking about the algo.
Please help. Thanks in advance!
There are three possible choices, 1, 2, 1+2, with costs 4, 7 and 11. Each is equally likely, so the expected cost is (4 + 7 + 11) / 3 = 22 / 3 = 7.33333.
This is more of a maths question than programming but I figure a lot of people here are pretty good at maths! :)
My question is: Given a 9 x 9 grid (81 cells) that must contain the numbers 1 to 9 each exactly 9 times, how many different grids can be produced. The order of the numbers doesn't matter, for example the first row could contain nine 1's etc. This is related to Sudoku and we know the number of valid Sudoku grids is 6.67×10^21, so since my problem isn't constrained like Sudoku by having to have each of the 9 numbers in each row, column and box then the answer should be greater than 6.67×10^21.
My first thought was that the answer is 81! however on further reflection this assumes that the 81 numbers possible for each cell are different, distinct number. They are not, there are 81 possible numbers for each cell but only 9 possible different numbers.
My next thought was then that each of the cells in the first row can be any number between 1 and 9. If by chance the first row happened to be all the same number, say all 1s, then each cell in the second row could only have 8 possibilites, 2-9. If this continued down until the last row then number of different permutations could be calculated by 9^2 * 8^2 * 7^2 ..... * 1^2. However this doesn't work if each row doesn't contain 9 of the same number.
It's been quite a while since I studied this stuff and I can't think of a way to work it out, I'd appreciate any help anyone can offer.
Imagine taking 81 blank slips of paper and writing a number from 1 to 9 on each slip (nine of each number). Shuffle the deck, and start placing the slips on the 9x9 grid.
You'd be able to create 81! different patterns if you considered each slip to be unique.
But instead you want to consider all the 1's to be equivalent.
For any particular configuration, how many times will that configuration be repeated
due to the 1's all being equivalent? The answer is 9!, the number of ways you can permute the nine slips with 1 written on them.
So that cuts the total number of permutations down to 81!/9!. (You divide by the number of indistinguishable permutations. Instead of 9! indistinguishable permutations, imagine there were just 2 indistinguishable permutations. You would divide the count by 2, right? So the rule is, you divide by the number of indistinguishable permutations.)
Ah, but you also want the 2's to be equivalent, and the 3's, and so forth.
By the same reasoning, that cuts down the number of permutations to
81!/(9!)^9
By Stirling's approximation, that is roughly 5.8 * 10^70.
First, let's start with 81 numbers, 1 through 81. The number of permutations for that is 81P81, or 81!. Simple enough.
However, we have nine 1s, which can be arranged in 9! indistinguishable permutations. Same with 2, 3, etc.
So what we have is the total number of board permutations divided by all the indistinguishable permutations of all numbers, or 81! / (9! ** 9).
>>> reduce(operator.mul, range(1,82))/(reduce(operator.mul, range(1, 10))**9)
53130688706387569792052442448845648519471103327391407016237760000000000L
I need to explain to the client why dupes are showing up between 2 supposedly different exams. It's been 20 years since Prob and Stats.
I have a generated Multiple choice exam.
There are 192 questions in the database,
100 are chosen at random (no dupes).
Obviously, there is a 100% chance of there being at least 8 dupes between any two exams so generated. (Pigeonhole principle)
How do I calculate the probability of there being
25 dupes?
50 dupes?
75 dupes?
-- Edit after the fact --
I ran this through excel, taking sums of the probabilities from n-100,
For this particular problem, the probabilities were
n P(n+ dupes)
40 97.5%
52 ~50%
61 ~0
Erm, this is really really hazy for me. But there are (192 choose 100) possible exams, right?
And there are (100 choose N) ways of picking N dupes, each with (92 choose 100-N) ways of picking the rest of the questions, no?
So isn't the probability of picking N dupes just:
(100 choose N) * (92 choose 100-N) / (192 choose 100)
EDIT: So if you want the chances of N or more dupes instead of exactly N, you have to sum the top half of that fraction for all values of N from the minimum number of dupes up to 100.
Errrr, maybe...
Its probably higher than you think. I won't attempt to duplicate this article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox
Once you've created the first exam, there are 92 questions that have never been used, and 100 that have. If you now generate another exam, with 100 questions in in it, you are chosing from a set of 92 questions that have never been used, and 100 that have. Clearly you are going to get quite a few duplicates.
You would expect to get (100/192) * 100 duplicates, i.e. in any two randomly chosen exams, there will (on average) be 52 duplicate questions.
If you want the probability that there are 25, or 75, or whatever, then you have two choices.
a) Work out the maths
b) Simulate a few runs on a computer