I've written an R script (sourced from here) simulating the path of a geometric Brownian motion of a stock price, and I need the simulation to run 1000 times such that I generate 1000 paths of the process Ut = Ste^-mu*t, by discretizing the law of motion derived from Ut which is the bottom line of the solution to the question posted here.
The process also has n = 252 steps and discretization step = 1/252, also risk of sigma = 0.4 and instantaneous drift mu, which I've treated as zero, although I'm not sure about this. I'm struggling to simulate 1000 paths of the process but am able to generate one single path, I'm unsure which variables I need to change or whether there's an issue in my for loop that's restricting me from generating all 1000 paths. Could it also be that the script is simulating each individual point for 252 realization instead of simulating the full process? If so, would this restrict me from generating all 1000 paths? Is it also possible that the array I'm generating defined as U hasn't being correctly generated by me? U[0] must equal 1 and so too must the first realization U(1) = 1. The code is below, I'm pretty stuck trying to figure this out so any help is appreciated.
#Simulating Geometric Brownian motion (GMB)
tau <- 1 #time to expiry
N <- 253 #number of sub intervals
dt <- tau/N #length of each time sub interval
time <- seq(from=0, to=N, by=dt) #time moments in which we simulate the process
length(time) #it should be N+1
mu <- 0 #GBM parameter 1
sigma <- 0.4 #GBM parameter 2
s0 <- 1 #GBM parameter 3
#simulate Geometric Brownian motion path
dwt <- rnorm(N, mean = 0, sd = 1) #standard normal sample of N elements
dW <- dwt*sqrt(dt) #Brownian motion increments
W <- c(0, cumsum(dW)) #Brownian motion at each time instant N+1 elements
#Define U Array and set initial values of U
U <- array(0, c(N,1)) #array of U
U[0] = 1
U[1] <- s0 #first element of U is s0. with the for loop we find the other N elements
for(i in 2:length(U)){
U[i] <- (U[1]*exp(mu - 0.5*sigma^2*i*dt + sigma*W[i-1]))*exp(-mu*i)
}
#Plot
plot(ts(U), main = expression(paste("Simulation of Ut")))
This questions is quite difficult to answer since there are a lot of unclear things, at least to me.
To begin with, length(time) is equal to 64010, not N + 1, which will be 254.
If I understand correctly, the brownian motion function returns the position in one dimension given a time. Hence, to calculate this position for each time the following can be enough:
s0*exp((mu - 0.5*sigma^2)*time + sigma*rnorm(length(time),0,time))
However, this calculates 64010 points, not 253. If you replicate it 1000 times, it gives 64010000 points, which is quite a lot.
> B <- 1000
> res <- replicate(B, {
+ s0*exp((mu - 0.5*sigma^2)*time + sigma*rnorm(length(time),0,time))
+ })
> length(res)
[1] 64010000
> dim(res)
[1] 64010 1000
I know I'm missing the second part, the one explained here, but I actually don't fully understand what you need there. If you can draw the formula maybe I can help you.
In general, avoid programming in R using for loops to iterate vectors. R is a vectorized language, and there is no need for that. If you want to run the same code B times, the replicate(B,{ your code }) function is your firend.
Related
I am simulating a basic Galton-Watson process (GWP) using a geometric distribution. I'm using this to find the probability of extinction for each generation. My question is, how do I find the generation at which the probability of extinction is equal to 1?
For example, I can create a function for the GWP like so:
# Galton-Watson Process for geometric distribution
GWP <- function(n, p) {
Sn <- c(1, rep(0, n))
for (i in 2:(n + 1)) {
Sn[i] <- sum(rgeom(Sn[i - 1], p))
}
return(Sn)
}
where, n is the number of generations.
Then, if I set the geometric distribution parameter p = 0.25... then to calculate the probability of extinction for, say, generation 10, I just do this:
N <- 10 # Number of elements in the initial population.
GWn <- replicate(N, GWP(10, 0.25)[10])
probExtinction <- sum(GWn==0)/N
probExtinction
This will give me the probability of extinction for generation 10... to find the probability of extinction for each generation I have to change the index value (to the corresponding generation number) when creating GWn... But what I'm trying to do is find at which generation will the probability of extinction = 1.
Any suggestions as to how I might go about solving this problem?
I can tell you how you would do this problem in principle, but I'm going to suggest that you may run into some difficulties (if you already know everything I'm about to say, just take it as advice to the next reader ...)
theoretically, the Galton-Watson process extinction probability never goes exactly to 1 (unless prob==1, or in the infinite-time limit)
of course, for any given replicate and random-number seed you can compute the first time point (if any) at which all of your lineages have gone extinct. This will be highly variable across runs, depending on the random-number seed ...
the distribution of extinction times is extremely skewed; lineages that don't go extinct immediately will last a loooong time ...
I modified your GWP function in two ways to make it more efficient: (1) stop the simulation when the lineage goes extinct; (2) replace the sum of geometric deviates with a single negative binomial deviate (see here)
GWP <- function(n, p) {
Sn <- c(1, rep(0, n))
for (i in 2:(n + 1)) {
Sn[i] <- rnbinom(1, size=Sn[i - 1], prob=p)
if (Sn[i]==0) break ## extinct, bail out
}
return(Sn)
}
The basic strategy now is: (1) run the simulations for a while, keep the entire trajectory; (2) compute extinction probability in every generation; (3) find the first generation such that p==1.
set.seed(101)
N <- 10 # Number of elements in the initial population.
maxgen <- 100
GWn <- replicate(N, GWP(maxgen, 0.5), simplify="array")
probExtinction <- rowSums(GWn==0)/N
which(probExtinction==1)[1]
(Subtract 1 from the last result if you want to start indexing from generation 0.) In this case the answer is NA, because there's 1/10 lineages that manages to stay alive (and indeed gets very large, so it will probably persist almost forever)
plot(0:maxgen, probExtinction, type="s") ## plot extinction probability
matplot(1+GWn,type="l",lty=1,col=1,log="y") ## plot lineage sizes (log(1+x) scale)
## demonstration that (sum(rgeom(n,...)) is equiv to rnbinom(1,size=n,...)
nmax <- 70
plot(prop.table(table(replicate(10000, sum(rgeom(10, prob=0.3))))),
xlim=c(0,nmax))
points(0:nmax,dnbinom(0:nmax, size=10, prob=0.3), col=2,pch=16)
I am doing some projects related to statistics simulation using R based on "Introduction to Scientific Programming and Simulation Using R" and in the Students projects session (chapter 24) i am doing the "The pipe spiders of Brunswick" problem, but i am stuck on one part of an evolutionary algorithm, where you need to perform some data perturbation according to the sentence bellow:
"With probability 0.5 each element of the vector is perturbed, independently
of the others, by an amount normally distributed with mean 0 and standard
deviation 0.1"
What does being "perturbed" really mean here? I dont really know which operation I should be doing with my vector to make this perturbation happen and im not finding any answers to this problem.
Thanks in advance!
# using the most important features, we create a ML model:
m1 <- lm(PREDICTED_VALUE ~ PREDICTER_1 + PREDICTER_2 + PREDICTER_N )
#summary(m1)
#anova(m1)
# after creating the model, we perturb as follows:
#install.packages("perturb") #install the package
library(perturb)
set.seed(1234) # for same results each time you run the code
p1_new <- perturb(m1, pvars=c("PREDICTER_1","PREDICTER_N") , prange = c(1,1),niter=200) # your can change the number of iterations to any value n. Total number of iteration would come to be n+1
p1_new # check the values of p1
summary(p1_new)
Perturbing just means adding a small, noisy shift to a number. Your code might look something like this.
x = sample(10, 10)
ind = rbinom(length(x), 1, 0.5) == 1
x[ind] = x[ind] + rnorm(sum(ind), 0, 0.1)
rbinom gets the elements to be modified with probability 0.5 and rnorm adds the perturbation.
Is there a way in R to generate random coordinates with a minimum distance between them?
E.g. what I'd like to avoid
x <- c(0,3.9,4.1,8)
y <- c(1,4.1,3.9,7)
plot(x~y)
This is a classical problem from stochastic geometry. Completely random points in space where the number of points falling in disjoint regions are independent of each other corresponds to a homogeneous Poisson point process (in this case in R^2, but could be in almost any space).
An important feature is that the total number of points has to be random before you can have independence of the counts of points in disjoint regions.
For the Poisson process points can be arbitrarily close together. If you define a process by sampling the Poisson process until you don't have any points that are too close together you have the so-called Gibbs Hardcore process. This has been studied a lot in the literature and there are different ways to simulate it. The R package spatstat has functions to do this. rHardcore is a perfect sampler, but if you want a high intensity of points and a big hard core distance it may not terminate in finite time... The distribution can be obtained as the limit of a Markov chain and rmh.default lets you run a Markov chain with a given Gibbs model as its invariant distribution. This finishes in finite time but only gives a realisation of an approximate distribution.
In rmh.default you can also simulate conditional on a fixed number of points. Note that when you sample in a finite box there is of course an upper limit to how many points you can fit with a given hard core radius, and the closer you are to this limit the more problematic it becomes to sample correctly from the distribution.
Example:
library(spatstat)
beta <- 100; R = 0.1
win <- square(1) # Unit square for simulation
X1 <- rHardcore(beta, R, W = win) # Exact sampling -- beware it may run forever for some par.!
plot(X1, main = paste("Exact sim. of hardcore model; beta =", beta, "and R =", R))
minnndist(X1) # Observed min. nearest neighbour dist.
#> [1] 0.102402
Approximate simulation
model <- rmhmodel(cif="hardcore", par = list(beta=beta, hc=R), w = win)
X2 <- rmh(model)
#> Checking arguments..determining simulation windows...Starting simulation.
#> Initial state...Ready to simulate. Generating proposal points...Running Metropolis-Hastings.
plot(X2, main = paste("Approx. sim. of hardcore model; beta =", beta, "and R =", R))
minnndist(X2) # Observed min. nearest neighbour dist.
#> [1] 0.1005433
Approximate simulation conditional on number of points
X3 <- rmh(model, control = rmhcontrol(p=1), start = list(n.start = 42))
#> Checking arguments..determining simulation windows...Starting simulation.
#> Initial state...Ready to simulate. Generating proposal points...Running Metropolis-Hastings.
plot(X3, main = paste("Approx. sim. given n =", 42))
minnndist(X3) # Observed min. nearest neighbour dist.
#> [1] 0.1018068
OK, how about this? You just generate random number pairs without restriction and then remove the onces which are too close. This could be a great start for that:
minimumDistancePairs <- function(x, y, minDistance){
i <- 1
repeat{
distance <- sqrt((x-x[i])^2 + (y-y[i])^2) < minDistance # pythagorean theorem
distance[i] <- FALSE # distance to oneself is always zero
if(any(distance)) { # if too close to any other point
x <- x[-i] # remove element from x
y <- y[-i] # and remove element from y
} else { # otherwise...
i = i + 1 # repeat the procedure with the next element
}
if (i > length(x)) break
}
data.frame(x,y)
}
minimumDistancePairs(
c(0,3.9,4.1,8)
, c(1,4.1,3.9,7)
, 1
)
will lead to
x y
1 0.0 1.0
2 4.1 3.9
3 8.0 7.0
Be aware, though, of the fact that these are not random numbers anymore (however you solve problem).
You can use rejection sapling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rejection_sampling
The principle is simple: you resample until you data verify the condition.
> set.seed(1)
>
> x <- rnorm(2)
> y <- rnorm(2)
> (x[1]-x[2])^2+(y[1]-y[2])^2
[1] 6.565578
> while((x[1]-x[2])^2+(y[1]-y[2])^2 > 1) {
+ x <- rnorm(2)
+ y <- rnorm(2)
+ }
> (x[1]-x[2])^2+(y[1]-y[2])^2
[1] 0.9733252
>
The following is a naive hit-and-miss approach which for some choices of parameters (which were left unspecified in the question) works well. If performance becomes an issue, you could experiment with the package gpuR which has a GPU-accelerated distance matrix calculation.
rand.separated <- function(n,x0,x1,y0,y1,d,trials = 1000){
for(i in 1:trials){
nums <- cbind(runif(n,x0,x1),runif(n,y0,y1))
if(min(dist(nums)) >= d) return(nums)
}
return(NA) #no luck
}
This repeatedly draws samples of size n in [x0,x1]x[y0,y1] and then throws the sample away if it doesn't satisfy. As a safety, trials guards against an infinite loop. If solutions are hard to find or n is large you might need to increase or decrease trials.
For example:
> set.seed(2018)
> nums <- rand.separated(25,0,10,0,10,0.2)
> plot(nums)
runs almost instantly and produces:
Im not sure what you are asking.
if you want random coordinates here.
c(
runif(1,max=y[1],min=x[1]),
runif(1,max=y[2],min=x[2]),
runif(1,min=y[3],max=x[3]),
runif(1,min=y[4],max=x[4])
)
Forgive me if this has been asked before (I feel it must have, but could not find precisely what I am looking for).
Have can I draw one element of a vector of whole numbers (from 1 through, say, 10) using a probability function that specifies different chances of the elements. If I want equal propabilities I use runif() to get a number between 1 and 10:
ceiling(runif(1,1,10))
How do I similarly sample from e.g. the exponential distribution to get a number between 1 and 10 (such that 1 is much more likely than 10), or a logistic probability function (if I want a sigmoid increasing probability from 1 through 10).
The only "solution" I can come up with is first to draw e6 numbers from the say sigmoid distribution and then scale min and max to 1 and 10 - but this looks clumpsy.
UPDATE:
This awkward solution (and I dont feel it very "correct") would go like this
#Draw enough from a distribution, here exponential
x <- rexp(1e3)
#Scale probs to e.g. 1-10
scaler <- function(vector, min, max){
(((vector - min(vector)) * (max - min))/(max(vector) - min(vector))) + min
}
x_scale <- scaler(x,1,10)
#And sample once (and round it)
round(sample(x_scale,1))
Are there not better solutions around ?
I believe sample() is what you are looking for, as #HubertL mentioned in the comments. You can specify an increasing function (e.g. logit()) and pass the vector you want to sample from v as an input. You can then use the output of that function as a vector of probabilities p. See the code below.
logit <- function(x) {
return(exp(x)/(exp(x)+1))
}
v <- c(seq(1,10,1))
p <- logit(seq(1,10,1))
sample(v, 1, prob = p, replace = TRUE)
I wish to integrate (1/y)*(2/(1+(log(y))^2)) from 0 to 1. Wolfram alpha tells me this should be pi. But when I do monte carlo integration in R, I keep getting 3.00 and 2.99 after trying over 10 times. This is what I have done:
y=runif(10^6)
f=(1/y)*(2/(1+(log(y))^2))
mean(f)
I copied the exact function into wolfram alpha to check that the integral should be pi
I tried to check if my y is properly distributed by checking it's mean and plotting a historgram, and it seems to be ok. Could there be something wrong with my computer?
Edit: Maybe someone else could copy my code and run it themselves, to confirm that it isn't my computer acting up.
Ok, first let's start with simple transformation, log(x) -> x, making integral
I = S 2/(1+x^2) dx, x in [0...infinity]
where S is integration sign.
So function 1/(1+x^2) is falling monotonically and reasonable fast. We need some reasonable PDF to sample points in [0...infinity] interval, such that most of the region where original function is significant is covered. We will use exponential distribution with some free parameter which we will use to optimize sampling.
I = S 2/(1+x^2)*exp(k*x)/k k*exp(-k*x) dx, x in [0...infinity]
So, we have k*e-kx as properly normalized PDF in the range of [0...infinity]. Function to integrate is (2/(1+x^2))*exp(k*x)/k. We know that sampling from exponential is basically -log(U(0,1)), so code to do that is very simple
k <- 0.05
# exponential distribution sampling from uniform vector
Fx <- function(x) {
-log(x) / k
}
# integrand
Fy <- function(x) {
( 2.0 / (1.0 + x*x) )*exp(k*x) / k
}
set.seed(12345)
n <- 10^6L
s <- runif(n)
# one could use rexp() as well instead of Fx
# x <- rexp(n, k)
x <- Fx(s)
f <- Fy(x)
q <- mean(f)
print(q)
Result is equal to 3.145954, for seed 22345 result is equal to 3.135632, for seed 32345 result is equal to 3.146081.
UPDATE
Going back to original function [0...1] is quite simple
UPDATE II
changed per prof.Bolker suggestion