How to simulate the sampling distribution? - r

I'm trying to gain a deeper understanding of the sampling distribution, and I've been working through some simulations to that end. For this exercise, the distribution I'm working with is a log-normal distribution with mean=0.1 and sigma=0.17. My code is below:
n_sims <- 1000
mu <- rep(NA, n_sims)
lo95 <- rep(NA, n_sims)
hi95 <- rep(NA, n_sims)
data <- rlnorm(1000, 0.1, 0.17)
for (i in 1:n_sims){
sim <- sample(data, 1000)
mu[i] <- mean(sim)
lo95[i] <- mean(sim) - 2*sd(sim)
hi95[i] <- mean(sim) + 2*sd(sim)
}
xs <- seq(1,n_sims,1)
plot(xs, mu, pch=16, ylim = c(min(lo95)-0.05, max(hi95)+0.05))
segments(xs, lo95, xs, hi95, lwd = 0.5, col = "gray")
sum((lo95 <= 1.1) & (hi95 >= 1.1))
I'm expecting 95% of the samples to contain the true value of the distribution (1.1 on the transformed scale), but the last line of code reveals that all of the 1000 samples contain the true mean? My understanding is that only 95% of these simulations should contain the correct mean. Is there something I'm not understanding?

The bug is located here: sample(data, 1000).
The default for the sample function is "replace=FALSE" thus every iteration is using the same exact samples. To properly bootstrap your analysis you need to sample with replacement: sim <- sample(data, 1000, replace=TRUE).
Also to calculate the confidence limits of your estimated mean, I believe you want to use mu +/- 2*sd/sqrt(n), where n is the number of samples.

Related

R generating binomial Random variables from exponential random variables

I have 100000 exponential random variables generated withrexp and I am asked to generate 100000 binomial random variables from them using built in R functions.
I really don't know how can I generate one random variable from another. I searched some resources on internet but they were mostly about generating poisson from exponential which are very related because exponential distribution can be interpreted as time intervals of poisson. making poisson can be easily achieved by applying cumsum on exponentials and using cut function to make some bins including number of occurrences in a time interval.
But I don't know how is it possible to generate binomial from exponential.
The function rbin below generates binomial rv's from exponential rv's. The reason why might be a question for CrossValidated, not for StackOverflow, which is about code.
rbin <- function(n, size, p){
onebin <- function(i, size, thres){
I <- 0L
repeat{
S <- sum(rexp(I + 1)/(size + 1 - seq_len(I + 1)))
if(S > thres) break
I <- I + 1L
}
I
}
thres <- -log(1 - p)
sapply(seq_len(n), onebin, size, thres)
}
set.seed(1234)
u <- rbin(100000, 1, 0.5)
v <- rbinom(100000, 1, 0.5)
X <- cbind(u, v)
cbind(Mean = colMeans(X), Var = apply(X, 2, var))
# Mean Var
#u 0.50124 0.2500010
#v 0.49847 0.2500002

How to run monte carlo simulation from a custom distribution in R

I would like to pull 1000 samples from a custom distribution in R
I have the following custom distribution
library(gamlss)
mu <- 1
sigma <- 2
tau <- 3
kappa <- 3
rate <- 1
Rmax <- 20
x <- seq(1, 2e1, 0.01)
points <- Rmax * dexGAUS(x, mu = mu, sigma = sigma, nu = tau) * pgamma(x, shape = kappa, rate = rate)
plot(points ~ x)
How can I randomly sample via Monte Carlo simulation from this distribution?
My first attempt was the following code which produced a histogram shape I did not expect.
hist(sample(points, 1000), breaks = 51)
This is not what I was looking for as it does not follow the same distribution as the pdf.
If you want a Monte Carlo simulation, you'll need to sample from the distribution a large number of times, not take a large sample one time.
Your object, points, has values that increases as the index increases to a threshold around 400, levels off, and then decreases. That's what plot(points ~ x) shows. It may describe a distribution, but the actual distribution of values in points is different. That shows how often values are within a certain range. You'll notice your x axis for the histogram is similar to the y axis for the plot(points ~ x) plot. The actual distribution of values in the points object is easy enough to see, and it is similar to what you're seeing when sampling 1000 values at random, without replacement from an object with 1900 values in it. Here's the distribution of values in points (no simulation required):
hist(points, 100)
I used 100 breaks on purpose so you could see some of the fine details.
Notice the little bump in the tail at the top, that you may not be expecting if you want the histogram to look like the plot of the values vs. the index (or some increasing x). That means that there are more values in points that are around 2 then there are around 1. See if you can look at how the curve of plot(points ~ x) flattens when the value is around 2, and how it's very steep between 0.5 and 1.5. Notice also the large hump at the low end of the histogram, and look at the plot(points ~ x) curve again. Do you see how most of the values (whether they're at the low end or the high end of that curve) are close to 0, or at least less than 0.25. If you look at those details, you may be able to convince yourself that the histogram is, in fact, exactly what you should expect :)
If you want a Monte Carlo simulation of a sample from this object, you might try something like:
samples <- replicate(1000, sample(points, 100, replace = TRUE))
If you want to generate data using points as a probability density function, that question has been asked and answered here
Let's define your (not normalized) probability density function as a function:
library(gamlss)
fun <- function(x, mu = 1, sigma = 2, tau = 3, kappa = 3, rate = 1, Rmax = 20)
Rmax * dexGAUS(x, mu = mu, sigma = sigma, nu = tau) *
pgamma(x, shape = kappa, rate = rate)
Now one approach is to use some MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) method. For instance,
simMCMC <- function(N, init, fun, ...) {
out <- numeric(N)
out[1] <- init
for(i in 2:N) {
pr <- out[i - 1] + rnorm(1, ...)
r <- fun(pr) / fun(out[i - 1])
out[i] <- ifelse(runif(1) < r, pr, out[i - 1])
}
out
}
It starts from point init and gives N draws. The approach can be improved in many ways, but I'm simply only going to start form init = 5, include a burnin period of 20000 and to select every second draw to reduce the number of repetitions:
d <- tail(simMCMC(20000 + 2000, init = 5, fun = fun), 2000)[c(TRUE, FALSE)]
plot(density(d))
You invert the ECDF of the distribution:
ecd.points <- ecdf(points)
invecdfpts <- with( environment(ecd.points), approxfun(y,x) )
samp.inv.ecd <- function(n=100) invecdfpts( runif(n) )
plot(density (samp.inv.ecd(100) ) )
plot(density(points) )
png(); layout(matrix(1:2,1)); plot(density (samp.inv.ecd(100) ),main="The Sample" )
plot(density(points) , main="The Original"); dev.off()
Here's another way to do it that draws from R: Generate data from a probability density distribution and How to create a distribution function in R?:
x <- seq(1, 2e1, 0.01)
points <- 20*dexGAUS(x,mu=1,sigma=2,nu=3)*pgamma(x,shape=3,rate=1)
f <- function (x) (20*dexGAUS(x,mu=1,sigma=2,nu=3)*pgamma(x,shape=3,rate=1))
C <- integrate(f,-Inf,Inf)
> C$value
[1] 11.50361
# normalize by C$value
f <- function (x)
(20*dexGAUS(x,mu=1,sigma=2,nu=3)*pgamma(x,shape=3,rate=1)/11.50361)
random.points <- approx(cumsum(pdf$y)/sum(pdf$y),pdf$x,runif(10000))$y
hist(random.points,1000)
hist((random.points*40),1000) will get the scaling like your original function.

How to draw an $\alpha$ confidence areas on a 2D-plot?

There are a lot of answers regarding to plotting confidence intervals.
I'm reading the paper by Lourme A. et al (2016) and I'd like to draw the 90% confidence boundary and the 10% exceptional points like in the Fig. 2 from the paper: .
I can't use LaTeX and insert the picture with the definition of confidence areas:
library("MASS")
library(copula)
set.seed(612)
n <- 1000 # length of sample
d <- 2 # dimension
# random vector with uniform margins on (0,1)
u1 <- runif(n, min = 0, max = 1)
u2 <- runif(n, min = 0, max = 1)
u = matrix(c(u1, u2), ncol=d)
Rg <- cor(u) # d-by-d correlation matrix
Rg1 <- ginv(Rg) # inv. matrix
# round(Rg %*% Rg1, 8) # check
# the multivariate c.d.f of u is a Gaussian copula
# with parameter Rg[1,2]=0.02876654
normal.cop = normalCopula(Rg[1,2], dim=d)
fit.cop = fitCopula(normal.cop, u, method="itau") #fitting
# Rg.hat = fit.cop#estimate[1]
# [1] 0.03097071
sim = rCopula(n, normal.cop) # in (0,1)
# Taking the quantile function of N1(0, 1)
y1 <- qnorm(sim[,1], mean = 0, sd = 1)
y2 <- qnorm(sim[,2], mean = 0, sd = 1)
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
plot(y1, y2, col="red"); abline(v=mean(y1), h=mean(y2))
plot(sim[,1], sim[,2], col="blue")
hist(y1); hist(y2)
Reference.
Lourme, A., F. Maurer (2016) Testing the Gaussian and Student's t copulas in a risk management framework. Economic Modelling.
Question. Could anyone help me and give the explanation of the variable v=(v_1,...,v_d) and G(v_1),..., G(v_d) in the equation?
I think v is the non-random matrix, the dimensions should be $k^2$ (grid points) by d=2 (dimensions). For example,
axis_x <- seq(0, 1, 0.1) # 11 grid points
axis_y <- seq(0, 1, 0.1) # 11 grid points
v <- expand.grid(axis_x, axis_y)
plot(v, type = "p")
So, your question is about the vector nu and correponding G(nu).
nu is a simple random vector drawn from any distribution that has a domain (0,1). (Here I use uniform distribution). Since you want your samples in 2D one single nu can be nu = runif(2). Given the explanations above, G is a gaussain pdf with mean 0 and a covariance matrix Rg. (Rg has dimensions of 2x2 in 2D).
Now what the paragraph says: if you have a random sample nu and you want it to be drawn from Gamma given the number of dimensions d and confidence level alpha then you need to compute the following statistic (G(nu) %*% Rg^-1) %*% G(nu) and check that is below the pdf of Chi^2 distribution for d and alpha.
For example:
# This is the copula parameter
Rg <- matrix(c(1,runif(2),1), ncol = 2)
# But we need to compute the inverse for sampling
Rginv <- MASS::ginv(Rg)
sampleResult <- replicate(10000, {
# we draw our nu from uniform, but others that map to (0,1), e.g. beta, are possible, too
nu <- runif(2)
# we compute G(nu) which is a gaussian cdf on the sample
Gnu <- qnorm(nu, mean = 0, sd = 1)
# for this we compute the statistic as given in formula
stat <- (Gnu %*% Rginv) %*% Gnu
# and return the result
list(nu = nu, Gnu = Gnu, stat = stat)
})
theSamples <- sapply(sampleResult["nu",], identity)
# this is the critical value of the Chi^2 with alpha = 0.95 and df = number of dimensions
# old and buggy threshold <- pchisq(0.95, df = 2)
# new and awesome - we are looking for the statistic at alpha = .95 quantile
threshold <- qchisq(0.95, df = 2)
# we can accept samples given the threshold (like in equation)
inArea <- sapply(sampleResult["stat",], identity) < threshold
plot(t(theSamples), col = as.integer(inArea)+1)
The red points are the points you would keep (I plot all points here).
As for drawing the decision boundries, I think it is a little bit more complicated, since you need to compute the exact pair of nu so that (Gnu %*% Rginv) %*% Gnu == pchisq(alpha, df = 2). It is a linear system that you solve for Gnu and then apply inverse to get your nu at the decision boundries.
edit: Reading the paragraph again, I noticed, the parameter for Gnu does not change, it is simply Gnu <- qnorm(nu, mean = 0, sd = 1).
edit: There was a bug: for threshold you need to use the quantile function qchisq instead of the distribution function pchisq - now corrected in the code above (and updated the figures).
This has two parts: first, compute the copula value as a function of X and Y; then, plot the curve giving the boundary where the copula exceeds the threshold.
Computing the value is basically linear algebra which #drey has answered. This is a rewritten version so that the copula is given by a function.
cop1 <- function(x)
{
Gnu <- qnorm(x)
Gnu %*% Rginv %*% Gnu
}
copula <- function(x)
{
apply(x, 1, cop1)
}
Plotting the boundary curve can be done using the same method as here (which in turn is the method used by the textbooks Modern Applied Stats with S, and Elements of Stat Learning). Create a grid of values, and use interpolation to find the contour line at the given height.
Rg <- matrix(c(1,runif(2),1), ncol = 2)
Rginv <- MASS::ginv(Rg)
# draw the contour line where value == threshold
# define a grid of values first: avoid x and y = 0 and 1, where infinities exist
xlim <- 1e-3
delta <- 1e-3
xseq <- seq(xlim, 1-xlim, by=delta)
grid <- expand.grid(x=xseq, y=xseq)
prob.grid <- copula(grid)
threshold <- qchisq(0.95, df=2)
contour(x=xseq, y=xseq, z=matrix(prob.grid, nrow=length(xseq)), levels=threshold,
col="grey", drawlabels=FALSE, lwd=2)
# add some points
data <- data.frame(x=runif(1000), y=runif(1000))
points(data, col=ifelse(copula(data) < threshold, "red", "black"))

Central Limit Theorem in R

I wish to simulate the central limit theorem in order to demonstrate it, and I am not sure how to do it in R. I want to create 10,000 samples with a sample size of n (can be numeric or a parameter), from a distribution I will choose (uniform, exponential, etc...). Then I want to graph in one plot (using the par and mfrow commands) the original distribution (histogram), the distribution of the means of all samples, a Q-Q plot of the means, and in the 4th graph (there are four, 2X2), I am not sure what to plot. Can you please assist me in starting to program it in R ? I think once I have the simulated data I should be fine. Thank you.
My initial attempt is below, it is too simple and I am not sure even correct.
r = 10000;
n = 20;
M = matrix(0,n,r);
Xbar = rep(0,r);
for (i in 1:r)
{
M[,i] = runif(n,0,1);
}
for (i in 1:r)
{
Xbar[i] = mean(M[,i]);
}
hist(Xbar);
The CLT states that given i.i.d. samples from a distribution with mean and variance, the sample mean (as a random variable) has a distribution that converges to a Gaussian as the number of samples n increase. Here, I will assume that you want to generate r sample sets containing n samples each to create r samples of the sample mean. Some code to do that is as follows:
set.seed(123) ## set the seed for reproducibility
r <- 10000
n <- 200 ## I use 200 instead of 20 to enhance convergence to Gaussian
## this function computes the r samples of the sample mean from the
## r*n original samples
sample.means <- function(samps, r, n) {
rowMeans(matrix(samps,nrow=r,ncol=n))
}
For generating the plots, we use ggplot2 and Aaron's qqplot.data function from here. We also use gridExtra to plot multiple plots in one frame.
library(ggplot2)
library(gridExtra)
qqplot.data <- function (vec) {
# following four lines from base R's qqline()
y <- quantile(vec[!is.na(vec)], c(0.25, 0.75))
x <- qnorm(c(0.25, 0.75))
slope <- diff(y)/diff(x)
int <- y[1L] - slope * x[1L]
d <- data.frame(resids = vec)
ggplot(d, aes(sample = resids)) + stat_qq() + geom_abline(slope = slope, intercept = int, colour="red") + ggtitle("Q-Q plot")
}
generate.plots <- function(samps, samp.means) {
p1 <- qplot(samps, geom="histogram", bins=30, main="Sample Histogram")
p2 <- qplot(samp.means, geom="histogram", bins=30, main="Sample Mean Histogram")
p3 <- qqplot.data(samp.means)
grid.arrange(p1,p2,p3,ncol=2)
}
Then we can use these functions with the uniform distribution:
samps <- runif(r*n) ## uniform distribution [0,1]
# compute sample means
samp.means <- sample.means(samps, r, n))
# generate plots
generate.plots(samps, samp.means)
We get:
Or, with the poisson distribution with mean = 3:
samps <- rpois(r*n,lambda=3)
# compute sample means
samp.means <- sample.means(samps, r, n))
# generate plots
generate.plots(samps, samp.means)
We get:
Or, with the exponential distribution with mean = 1/1:
samps <- rexp(r*n,rate=1)
# compute sample means
samp.means <- sample.means(samps, r, n))
# generate plots
generate.plots(samps, samp.means)
We get:
Note that the mean of the sample mean histograms all look like Gaussians with mean that is very similar to the mean of the original generating distribution, whether this is uniform, poisson, or exponential, as predicted by the CLT (also its variance will be 1/(n=200) the variance of the original generating distribution).
Maybe this can help you get started. I have hard-coded the normal distribution and only shown two of your suggested plots: a the histogram of a randomly selected sample, and a histogram of all sample means.
I guess my main suggestion is using a list to store the samples instead of a matrix.
r <- 10000
my.n <- 20
simulation <- list()
for (i in 1:r) {
simulation[[i]] <- rnorm(my.n)
}
sample.means <- sapply(simulation, mean)
selected.sample <- runif(1, min = 1, max = r)
dev.off()
par(mfrow = c(1, 2))
hist(simulation[[selected.sample]])
hist(sample.means)

Generating samples from a two-Gaussian mixture in r (code given in MATLAB)

I'm trying to create (in r) the equivalent to the following MATLAB function that will generate n samples from a mixture of N(m1,(s1)^2) and N(m2, (s2)^2) with a fraction, alpha, from the first Gaussian.
I have a start, but the results are notably different between MATLAB and R (i.e., the MATLAB results give occasional values of +-8 but the R version never even gives a value of +-5). Please help me sort out what is wrong here. Thanks :-)
For Example:
Plot 1000 samples from a mix of N(0,1) and N(0,36) with 95% of samples from the first Gaussian. Normalize the samples to mean zero and standard deviation one.
MATLAB
function
function y = gaussmix(n,m1,m2,s1,s2,alpha)
y = zeros(n,1);
U = rand(n,1);
I = (U < alpha)
y = I.*(randn(n,1)*s1+m1) + (1-I).*(randn(n,1)*s2 + m2);
implementation
P = gaussmix(1000,0,0,1,6,.95)
P = (P-mean(P))/std(P)
plot(P)
axis([0 1000 -15 15])
hist(P)
axis([-15 15 0 1000])
resulting plot
resulting hist
R
yn <- rbinom(1000, 1, .95)
s <- rnorm(1000, 0 + 0*yn, 1 + 36*yn)
sn <- (s-mean(s))/sd(s)
plot(sn, xlim=range(0,1000), ylim=range(-15,15))
hist(sn, xlim=range(-15,15), ylim=range(0,1000))
resulting plot
resulting hist
As always, THANK YOU!
SOLUTION
gaussmix <- function(nsim,mean_1,mean_2,std_1,std_2,alpha){
U <- runif(nsim)
I <- as.numeric(U<alpha)
y <- I*rnorm(nsim,mean=mean_1,sd=std_1)+
(1-I)*rnorm(nsim,mean=mean_2,sd=std_2)
return(y)
}
z1 <- gaussmix(1000,0,0,1,6,0.95)
z1_standardized <- (z1-mean(z1))/sqrt(var(z1))
z2 <- gaussmix(1000,0,3,1,1,0.80)
z2_standardized <- (z2-mean(z2))/sqrt(var(z2))
z3 <- rlnorm(1000)
z3_standardized <- (z3-mean(z3))/sqrt(var(z3))
par(mfrow=c(2,3))
hist(z1_standardized,xlim=c(-10,10),ylim=c(0,500),
main="Histogram of 95% of N(0,1) and 5% of N(0,36)",
col="blue",xlab=" ")
hist(z2_standardized,xlim=c(-10,10),ylim=c(0,500),
main="Histogram of 80% of N(0,1) and 10% of N(3,1)",
col="blue",xlab=" ")
hist(z3_standardized,xlim=c(-10,10),ylim=c(0,500),
main="Histogram of samples of LN(0,1)",col="blue",xlab=" ")
##
plot(z1_standardized,type='l',
main="1000 samples from a mixture N(0,1) and N(0,36)",
col="blue",xlab="Samples",ylab="Mean",ylim=c(-10,10))
plot(z2_standardized,type='l',
main="1000 samples from a mixture N(0,1) and N(3,1)",
col="blue",xlab="Samples",ylab="Mean",ylim=c(-10,10))
plot(z3_standardized,type='l',
main="1000 samples from LN(0,1)",
col="blue",xlab="Samples",ylab="Mean",ylim=c(-10,10))
There are two problems, I think ... (1) your R code is creating a mixture of normal distributions with standard deviations of 1 and 37. (2) By setting prob equal to alpha in your rbinom() call, you're getting a fraction alpha in the second mode rather than the first. So what you are getting is a distribution that is mostly a Gaussian with sd 37, contaminated by a 5% mixture of Gaussian with sd 1, rather than a Gaussian with sd 1 that is contaminated by a 5% mixture of a Gaussian with sd 6. Scaling by the standard deviation of the mixture (which is about 36.6) basically reduces it to a standard Gaussian with a slight bump near the origin ...
(The other answers posted here do solve your problem perfectly well, but I thought you might be interested in a diagnosis ...)
A more compact (and perhaps more idiomatic) version of your Matlab gaussmix function (I think runif(n)<alpha is slightly more efficient than rbinom(n,size=1,prob=alpha) )
gaussmix <- function(n,m1,m2,s1,s2,alpha) {
I <- runif(n)<alpha
rnorm(n,mean=ifelse(I,m1,m2),sd=ifelse(I,s1,s2))
}
set.seed(1001)
s <- gaussmix(1000,0,0,1,6,0.95)
Not that you asked for it, but the mclust package offers a way to generalize your problem to more dimensions and diverse covariance structures. See ?mclust::sim. The example task would be done this way:
require(mclust)
simdata = sim(modelName = "V",
parameters = list(pro = c(0.95, 0.05),
mean = c(0, 0),
variance = list(modelName = "V",
d = 1,
G = 2,
sigmasq = c(0, 36))),
n = 1000)
plot(scale(simdata[,2]), type = "h")
I recently wrote the density and sampling function of a multinomial mixture of normal distributions:
dmultiNorm <- function(x,means,sds,weights)
{
if (length(means)!=length(sds)) stop("Length of means must be equal to length of standard deviations")
N <- length(x)
n <- length(means)
if (missing(weights))
{
weights <- rep(1,n)
}
if (length(weights)!=n) stop ("Length of weights not equal to length of means and sds")
weights <- weights/sum(weights)
dens <- numeric(N)
for (i in 1:n)
{
dens <- dens + weights[i] * dnorm(x,means[i],sds[i])
}
return(dens)
}
rmultiNorm <- function(N,means,sds,weights,scale=TRUE)
{
if (length(means)!=length(sds)) stop("Length of means must be equal to length of standard deviations")
n <- length(means)
if (missing(weights))
{
weights <- rep(1,n)
}
if (length(weights)!=n) stop ("Length of weights not equal to length of means and sds")
Res <- numeric(N)
for (i in 1:N)
{
s <- sample(1:n,1,prob=weights)
Res[i] <- rnorm(1,means[s],sds[s])
}
return(Res)
}
With means being a vector of means, sds being a vector of standard deviatians and weights being a vector with proportional probabilities to sample from each of the distributions. Is this useful to you?
Here is code to do this task:
"For Example: Plot 1000 samples from a mix of N(0,1) and N(0,36) with 95% of samples from the first Gaussian. Normalize the samples to mean zero and standard deviation one."
plot(multG <- c( rnorm(950), rnorm(50, 0, 36))[sample(1000)] , type="h")
scmulG <- scale(multG)
summary(scmulG)
#-----------
V1
Min. :-9.01845
1st Qu.:-0.06544
Median : 0.03841
Mean : 0.00000
3rd Qu.: 0.13940
Max. :12.33107

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