I'm trying to estimate an ARIMA, VAR and Neural Network models in R, to compare the quality of their predictions regarding unemployment, using the data regarding several economic indicators and COVID-19 related information which i would like to use as exogenous information. I would also like these models to use the rolling window approach, if possible.
My economic information extends from 2007 to 2021 (monthly) while the COVID data only comes from 2020, which obviously poses problems regarding the size of the time series.
Since i am trying to use rolling windows, every time I try to include COVID information i get the following error.
Error in solve.default(Sigma) :
system is computationally singular: reciprocal condition number = 2.6396e-19
Which I assume is because the covid information is all 0's (since we are using data from 2007) and therefore the model assumes a perfect correlation for that information.
Is there any way I can combine these 2 time series (the economic one from 2007 and the covid one) in the models mentioned, while using the rolling window approach?
dput version
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Code:
VAR_data_Total = data
f = function(data){
m1 = vars::VAR(data[,1:10], p=3, exogen = data[,11:12])
s1 = summary(m1)
return(s1$varresult$unemp$coefficients)
}
zoo::rollapply(VAR_data_Total, width = 41, FUN = f, by.column = FALSE)