I am trying to evaluate themodel fit of several regressions in R, and I have run into a problem I have had multiple times now: the log-likelihood of my Poisson regression is infinite.
I'm using a non-integer dependent variable (Note: I know what I'm doing in this regard), and I'm wondering if maybe that's the problem. However, I don't get an infinite log-likelihood when running the regression with glm.nb.
Code to reproduce the issue is below.
Edit: the problem appears to go away when I coerce the DV to integer. Any idea how to get log likelihood from Poissons with non-integer DVs?
# Input Data
so_data <- data.frame(dv = c(21.0552722691125, 24.3061351414885, 7.84658638053276,
25.0294679770848, 15.8064731063311, 10.8171744654056, 31.3008088413026,
2.26643928259238, 18.4261153345417, 5.62915828161753, 17.0691184593063,
1.11959635820499, 30.0154935602592, 23.0000809735738, 28.4389825676123,
27.7678405415711, 23.7108405071757, 23.5070651053276, 14.2534787168392,
15.2058525068363, 19.7449094187771, 2.52384709295823, 29.7081691356397,
32.4723790240354, 19.2147002673637, 61.7911384519901, 10.5687170234821,
23.9047421013736, 18.4889651451222, 13.0360878554798, 15.1752866581849,
11.5205948111817, 31.3539840929108, 31.7255952728076, 25.3034625215724,
5.00013988265465, 30.2037887018226, 1.86123112349445, 3.06932041603219,
22.6739418581257, 6.33738321053804, 24.2933951601142, 14.8634827414491,
31.8302947881089, 34.8361908525564, 1.29606416941288, 13.206844629927,
28.843579313401, 25.8024295609021, 14.4414831628722, 18.2109680632694,
14.7092063453463, 10.0738043919183, 28.4124482962025, 27.1004208775326,
1.31350378236957, 14.3009307888745, 1.32555197766214, 2.70896028922312,
3.88043749517381, 3.79492216916016, 19.4507965653633, 32.1689088941444,
2.61278585713499, 41.6955885902228, 2.13466761675063, 30.4207256294235,
24.8231524369244, 20.7605955978196, 17.2182798298094, 2.11563574288652,
12.290778250655, 0.957467139696772, 16.1775287334746))
# Run Model
p_mod <- glm(dv ~ 1, data = so_data, family = poisson(link = 'log'))
# Be Confused
logLik(p_mod)
Elaborating on #ekstroem's comment: the Poisson distribution is only supported over the non-negative integers (0, 1, ...). So, technically speaking, the probability of any non-integer value is zero -- although R does allow for a little bit of fuzz, to allow for round-off/floating-point representation issues:
> dpois(1,lambda=1)
[1] 0.3678794
> dpois(1.1,lambda=1)
[1] 0
Warning message:
In dpois(1.1, lambda = 1) : non-integer x = 1.100000
> dpois(1+1e-7,lambda=1) ## fuzz
[1] 0.3678794
It is theoretically possible to compute something like a Poisson log-likelihood for non-integer values:
my_dpois <- function(x,lambda,log=FALSE) {
LL <- -lambda+x*log(lambda)-lfactorial(x)
if (log) LL else exp(LL)
}
but I would be very careful - some quick tests with integrate suggest it integrates to 1 (after I fixed the bug in it), but I haven't checked more carefully that this is really a well-posed probability distribution. (On the other hand, some reasonable-seeming posts on CrossValidated suggest that it's not insane ...)
You say "I know what I'm doing in this regard"; can you give some more of the context? Some alternative possibilities (although this is steering into CrossValidated territory) -- the best answer depends on where your data really come from (i.e., why you have "count-like" data that are non-integer but you think should be treated as Poisson).
a quasi-Poisson model (family=quasipoisson). (R will still not give you log-likelihood or AIC values in this case, because technically they don't exist -- you're supposed to do inference on the basis of the Wald statistics of the parameters; see e.g. here for more info.)
a Gamma model (probably with a log link)
if the data started out as count data that you've scaled by some measure of effort or exposure), use an appropriate offset model ...
a generalized least-squares model (nlme::gls) with an appropriate heteroscedasticity specification
Poisson log-likelihood involves calculating log(factorial(x)) (https://www.statlect.com/fundamentals-of-statistics/Poisson-distribution-maximum-likelihood). For values larger than 30 it has to be done using Stirling's approximation formula in order to avoid exceeding the limit of computer arithmetic. Sample code in Python:
# define a likelihood function. https://www.statlect.com/fundamentals-of- statistics/Poisson-distribution-maximum-likelihood
def loglikelihood_f(lmba, x):
#Using Stirling formula to avoid calculation of factorial.
#logfactorial(n) = n*ln(n) - n
n = x.size
logfactorial = x*np.log(x+0.001) - x #np.log(factorial(x))
logfactorial[logfactorial == -inf] = 0
result =\
- np.sum(logfactorial) \
- n * lmba \
+ np.log(lmba) * np.sum(x)
return result
I am working with the cumulative emergence of flies over time (taken at irregular intervals) over many summers (though first I am just trying to make one year work). The cumulative emergence follows a sigmoid pattern and I want to create a maximum likelihood estimation of a 3-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function. The three-parameter models I've been trying to use in the fitdistrplus package keep giving me an error. I think this must have something to do with how my data is structured, but I cannot figure it out. Obviously I want it to read each point as an x (degree days) and a y (emergence) value, but it seems to be unable to read two columns. The main error I'm getting says "Non-numeric argument to mathematical function" or (with slightly different code) "data must be a numeric vector of length greater than 1". Below is my code including added columns in the df_dd_em dataframe for cumulative emergence and percent emergence in case that is useful.
degree_days <- c(998.08,1039.66,1111.29,1165.89,1236.53,1293.71,
1347.66,1387.76,1445.47,1493.44,1553.23,1601.97,
1670.28,1737.29,1791.94,1849.20,1920.91,1967.25,
2036.64,2091.85,2152.89,2199.13,2199.13,2263.09,
2297.94,2352.39,2384.03,2442.44,2541.28,2663.90,
2707.36,2773.82,2816.39,2863.94)
emergence <- c(0,0,0,1,1,0,2,3,17,10,0,0,0,2,0,3,0,0,1,5,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0)
cum_em <- cumsum(emergence)
df_dd_em <- data.frame (degree_days, emergence, cum_em)
df_dd_em$percent <- ave(df_dd_em$emergence, FUN = function(df_dd_em) 100*(df_dd_em)/46)
df_dd_em$cum_per <- ave(df_dd_em$cum_em, FUN = function(df_dd_em) 100*(df_dd_em)/46)
x <- pweibull(df_dd_em[c(1,3)],shape=5)
dframe2.mle <- fitdist(x, "weibull",method='mle')
Here's my best guess at what you're after:
Set up data:
dd <- data.frame(degree_days=c(998.08,1039.66,1111.29,1165.89,1236.53,1293.71,
1347.66,1387.76,1445.47,1493.44,1553.23,1601.97,
1670.28,1737.29,1791.94,1849.20,1920.91,1967.25,
2036.64,2091.85,2152.89,2199.13,2199.13,2263.09,
2297.94,2352.39,2384.03,2442.44,2541.28,2663.90,
2707.36,2773.82,2816.39,2863.94),
emergence=c(0,0,0,1,1,0,2,3,17,10,0,0,0,2,0,3,0,0,1,5,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0))
dd <- transform(dd,cum_em=cumsum(emergence))
We're actually going to fit to an "interval-censored" distribution (i.e. probability of emergence between successive degree day observations: this version assumes that the first observation refers to observations before the first degree-day observation, you could change it to refer to observations after the last observation).
library(bbmle)
## y*log(p) allowing for 0/0 occurrences:
y_log_p <- function(y,p) ifelse(y==0 & p==0,0,y*log(p))
NLLfun <- function(scale,shape,x=dd$degree_days,y=dd$emergence) {
prob <- pmax(diff(pweibull(c(-Inf,x), ## or (c(x,Inf))
shape=shape,scale=scale)),1e-6)
## multinomial probability
-sum(y_log_p(y,prob))
}
library(bbmle)
I should probably have used something more systematic like the method of moments (i.e. matching the mean and variance of a Weibull distribution with the mean and variance of the data), but I just hacked around a bit to find plausible starting values:
## preliminary look (method of moments would be better)
scvec <- 10^(seq(0,4,length=101))
plot(scvec,sapply(scvec,NLLfun,shape=1))
It's important to use parscale to let R know that the parameters are on very different scales:
startvals <- list(scale=1000,shape=1)
m1 <- mle2(NLLfun,start=startvals,
control=list(parscale=unlist(startvals)))
Now try with a three-parameter Weibull (as originally requested) -- requires only a slight modification of what we already have:
library(FAdist)
NLLfun2 <- function(scale,shape,thres,
x=dd$degree_days,y=dd$emergence) {
prob <- pmax(diff(pweibull3(c(-Inf,x),shape=shape,scale=scale,thres)),
1e-6)
## multinomial probability
-sum(y_log_p(y,prob))
}
startvals2 <- list(scale=1000,shape=1,thres=100)
m2 <- mle2(NLLfun2,start=startvals2,
control=list(parscale=unlist(startvals2)))
Looks like the three-parameter fit is much better:
library(emdbook)
AICtab(m1,m2)
## dAIC df
## m2 0.0 3
## m1 21.7 2
And here's the graphical summary:
with(dd,plot(cum_em~degree_days,cex=3))
with(as.list(coef(m1)),curve(sum(dd$emergence)*
pweibull(x,shape=shape,scale=scale),col=2,
add=TRUE))
with(as.list(coef(m2)),curve(sum(dd$emergence)*
pweibull3(x,shape=shape,
scale=scale,thres=thres),col=4,
add=TRUE))
(could also do this more elegantly with ggplot2 ...)
These don't seem like spectacularly good fits, but they're sane. (You could in principle do a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test based on the expected number of emergences per interval, and accounting for the fact that you've fitted a three-parameter model, although the values might be a bit low ...)
Confidence intervals on the fit are a bit of a nuisance; your choices are (1) bootstrapping; (2) parametric bootstrapping (resample parameters assuming a multivariate normal distribution of the data); (3) delta method.
Using bbmle::mle2 makes it easy to do things like get profile confidence intervals:
confint(m1)
## 2.5 % 97.5 %
## scale 1576.685652 1777.437283
## shape 4.223867 6.318481
dd <- data.frame(degree_days=c(998.08,1039.66,1111.29,1165.89,1236.53,1293.71,
1347.66,1387.76,1445.47,1493.44,1553.23,1601.97,
1670.28,1737.29,1791.94,1849.20,1920.91,1967.25,
2036.64,2091.85,2152.89,2199.13,2199.13,2263.09,
2297.94,2352.39,2384.03,2442.44,2541.28,2663.90,
2707.36,2773.82,2816.39,2863.94),
emergence=c(0,0,0,1,1,0,2,3,17,10,0,0,0,2,0,3,0,0,1,5,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0))
dd$cum_em <- cumsum(dd$emergence)
dd$percent <- ave(dd$emergence, FUN = function(dd) 100*(dd)/46)
dd$cum_per <- ave(dd$cum_em, FUN = function(dd) 100*(dd)/46)
dd <- transform(dd)
#start 3 parameter model
library(FAdist)
## y*log(p) allowing for 0/0 occurrences:
y_log_p <- function(y,p) ifelse(y==0 & p==0,0,y*log(p))
NLLfun2 <- function(scale,shape,thres,
x=dd$degree_days,y=dd$percent) {
prob <- pmax(diff(pweibull3(c(-Inf,x),shape=shape,scale=scale,thres)),
1e-6)
## multinomial probability
-sum(y_log_p(y,prob))
}
startvals2 <- list(scale=1000,shape=1,thres=100)
m2 <- mle2(NLLfun2,start=startvals2,
control=list(parscale=unlist(startvals2)))
summary(m2)
#graphical summary
windows(5,5)
with(dd,plot(cum_per~degree_days,cex=3))
with(as.list(coef(m2)),curve(sum(dd$percent)*
pweibull3(x,shape=shape,
scale=scale,thres=thres),col=4,
add=TRUE))
I have to create a model which is a mixture of a normal and log-normal distribution. To create it, I need to estimate the 2 covariance matrixes and the mixing parameter (total =7 parameters) by maximizing the log-likelihood function. This maximization has to be performed by the nlm routine.
As I use relative data, the means are known and equal to 1.
I’ve already tried to do it in 1 dimension (with 1 set of relative data) and it works well. However, when I introduce the 2nd set of relative data I get illogical results for the correlation and a lot of warnings messages (at all 25).
To estimate these parameters I defined first the log-likelihood function with the 2 commands dmvnorm and dlnorm.plus. Then I assign starting values of the parameters and finally I use the nlm routine to estimate the parameters (see script below).
`P <- read.ascii.grid("d:/Documents/JOINT_FREQUENCY/grid_E727_P-3000.asc", return.header=
FALSE );
V <- read.ascii.grid("d:/Documents/JOINT_FREQUENCY/grid_E727_V-3000.asc", return.header=
FALSE );
p <- c(P); # tranform matrix into a vector
v <- c(V);
p<- p[!is.na(p)] # removing NA values
v<- v[!is.na(v)]
p_rel <- p/mean(p) #Transforming the data to relative values
v_rel <- v/mean(v)
PV <- cbind(p_rel, v_rel) # create a matrix of vectors
L <- function(par,p_rel,v_rel) {
return (-sum(log( (1- par[7])*dmvnorm(PV, mean=c(1,1), sigma= matrix(c(par[1]^2, par[1]*par[2]
*par[3],par[1]*par[2]*par[3], par[2]^2 ),nrow=2, ncol=2))+
par[7]*dlnorm.rplus(PV, meanlog=c(1,1), varlog= matrix(c(par[4]^2,par[4]*par[5]*par[6],par[4]
*par[5]*par[6],par[5]^2), nrow=2,ncol=2)) )))
}
par.start<- c(0.74, 0.66 ,0.40, 1.4, 1.2, 0.4, 0.5) # log-likelihood estimators
result<-nlm(L,par.start,v_rel=v_rel,p_rel=p_rel, hessian=TRUE, iterlim=200, check.analyticals= TRUE)
Messages d'avis :
1: In log(eigen(sigma, symmetric = TRUE, only.values = TRUE)$values) :
production de NaN
2: In sqrt(2 * pi * det(varlog)) : production de NaN
3: In nlm(L, par.start, p_rel = p_rel, v_rel = v_rel, hessian = TRUE) :
NA/Inf replaced by maximum positive value
4: In log(eigen(sigma, symmetric = TRUE, only.values = TRUE)$values) :
production de NaN
…. Until 25.
par.hat <- result$estimate
cat("sigN_p =", par[1],"\n","sigN_v =", par[2],"\n","rhoN =", par[3],"\n","sigLN_p =", par [4],"\n","sigLN_v =", par[5],"\n","rhoLN =", par[6],"\n","mixing parameter =", par[7],"\n")
sigN_p = 0.5403361
sigN_v = 0.6667375
rhoN = 0.6260181
sigLN_p = 1.705626
sigLN_v = 1.592832
rhoLN = 0.9735974
mixing parameter = 0.8113369`
Does someone know what is wrong in my model or how should I do to find these parameters in 2 dimensions?
Thank you very much for taking time to look at my questions.
Regards,
Gladys Hertzog
When I do these kind of optimization problems, I find that it's important to make sure that all the variables that I'm optimizing over are constrained to plausible values. For example, standard deviation variables have to be positive, and from knowledge of the situation that I'm modelling I'll probably be able to put an upper bound all my standard deviation variables as well. So if s is one of my standard deviation variables, and if m is the maximum value that I want it to take, instead of working with s I'll solve for the variable z which is related to s via
s = m/(1+e-z)
In that formula, z is unconstrained, but s must lie between 0 and m. This is vital because optimization routines where the variables are not constrained to take plausible values will often try completely implausible values while they're trying to bound the solution. Implausible values often cause problems with e.g. precision, that then results in NaN's etc. The general formula that I use for constraining a single variable x to lie between a and b is
x = a + (b - a)/(1+e-z)
However, regarding your particular problem where you're looking for covariance matrices, a more sophisticated approach is necessary than simply bounding all the individual variables. Covariance matrices must be positive semi-definite, so if you're simply optimizing the individual values in the matrix, the optimization will probably fail (producing NaN's) if a matrix which isn't positive definite is fed into the likelihood function. To get round this problem, one approach is to solve for the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix instead of the covariance matrix itself. My guess is that this is probably what's causing your optimization to fail.