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Suppose you have a matrix of time series, where each column is a time series.
Now, suppose you take second differences of this matrix, (so the data is stationary), using this code:
var_train_data <- diff(var_train, differences = 2)
and then you estimate this model:
var_1 <- VAR(y=var_train_data, lag=9, type="const")
Recall that this function VARcomes from vars package.
How can you plot the original data and the fitted(var_1) data? Is there a function to return the fitted data from the VAR to "level"?
I want to do this but with a VAR.
Thanks in advance!!
Here is the data:
> dput(var_train)
structure(c(8.59225428063812, 8.61632381521795, 8.48941975098913,
8.42616336163893, 8.4656261753598, 8.49981580266834, 8.50658473928686,
8.54846279771184, 8.58669260125764, 8.56316032696837, 8.52323490346238,
8.48186742854092, 8.48127581622944, 8.49729119076164, 8.49055049683316,
8.58344453055748, 8.66539149708416, 7.9357662604667, 6.05291235942189,
6.03890804924141, 5.98225560802266, 5.97240914057282, 5.94306180787981,
6.20137810965131, 6.12654161955374, 5.94624694111468, 5.85594359899009,
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5.78449385503938, 5.80588769759335, 5.70948049577085, 5.67528501375454,
5.52325929980363, 5.31085745753021, 5.33500450854624, 5.3938341365814,
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3.95072671083008, 4.03652777624058, 4.06630193640976, 4.08838169421096,
4.09074775372752), .Dim = c(192L, 7L), .Dimnames = list(NULL,
c("EMBI+", "M2 (pesos)", "Commodity Price index", "emae",
"gasto programas SS", "recursos tributarios", "ex_rate")), .Tsp = c(2004,
2019.91666666667, 12), class = c("mts", "ts", "matrix"))
I have a dataset with geometry through the sf package included with lat and lon information. I also have a heat map created as a result of the dataset
Overlay<-stat_density2d(aes(x = df$LONGITUDE, y = fd$LATITUDE, fill = ..density..), geom = 'tile', contour = F, alpha = .5)
Is there a way to join the heat map density color values into the point file?
st_join(Shots1B,Overlay)
gives me an error
Error in st_join.sf(Shots1B, Overlay) :
second argument should be of class sf: maybe revert the first two arguments?
Reproductive dataset to follow the process. Overlay is based on the result of this dataset here.
structure(list(LATITUDE = c(40.68358, 40.69754, 40.843464, 40.692547,
40.626457, 40.526894, 40.840775, 40.694035, 40.857365, 40.698807,
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40.6635, 40.827824, 40.575832, 40.730366, 40.640945, 40.784237,
40.76803, 40.669823, 40.659336, 40.616093, 40.763546), LONGITUDE = c(-73.97617,
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-74.12409, -73.91388, -73.94852, -73.947075, -73.87722, -73.90981,
-73.92726, -74.14523, -73.88209), COLLISION_ID = c(4407147L,
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4408120L, 4407703L, 4407668L, 4407570L, 4408101L, 4407800L, 4407917L
)), row.names = c(NA, 400L), class = "data.frame")
I am plotting a truncated density in R. Here are the coordinates of my polygon from dput output:
dat <- structure(list(pro.d.x = c(0.587084148727984, 0.589041095890411,
0.590998043052838, 0.592954990215264, 0.594911937377691, 0.596868884540117,
0.598825831702544, 0.600782778864971, 0.602739726027397, 0.604696673189824,
0.60665362035225, 0.608610567514677, 0.610567514677104, 0.61252446183953,
0.614481409001957, 0.616438356164384, 0.61839530332681, 0.620352250489237,
0.622309197651663, 0.62426614481409, 0.626223091976517, 0.628180039138943,
0.63013698630137, 0.632093933463796, 0.634050880626223, 0.63600782778865,
0.637964774951076, 0.639921722113503, 0.64187866927593, 0.643835616438356,
0.645792563600783, 0.647749510763209, 0.649706457925636, 0.651663405088063,
0.653620352250489, 0.655577299412916, 0.657534246575342, 0.659491193737769,
0.661448140900196, 0.663405088062622, 0.665362035225049, 0.667318982387475,
0.669275929549902, 0.671232876712329, 0.673189823874755, 0.675146771037182,
0.677103718199609, 0.679060665362035, 0.681017612524462, 0.682974559686888,
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0.692759295499021, 0.694716242661448, 0.696673189823875, 0.698630136986301,
0.700587084148728, 0.702544031311155, 0.704500978473581, 0.706457925636008,
0.708414872798434, 0.710371819960861, 0.712328767123288, 0.714285714285714,
0.716242661448141, 0.718199608610568, 0.720156555772994, 0.722113502935421,
0.724070450097847, 0.726027397260274, 0.727984344422701, 0.729941291585127,
0.731898238747554, 0.73385518590998, 0.735812133072407, 0.737769080234834,
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0.849315068493151, 0.851272015655577, 0.853228962818004, 0.85518590998043,
0.857142857142857, 0.859099804305284, 0.86105675146771, 0.863013698630137,
0.864970645792564, 0.86692759295499, 0.868884540117417, 0.870841487279843,
0.87279843444227, 0.874755381604697, 0.876712328767123, 0.87866927592955,
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0.896281800391389, 0.898238747553816, 0.900195694716243, 0.902152641878669,
0.904109589041096, 0.906066536203523, 0.908023483365949, 0.909980430528376,
0.911937377690802, 0.913894324853229, 0.915851272015656, 0.917808219178082,
0.919765166340509, 0.921722113502935, 0.923679060665362, 0.925636007827789,
0.927592954990215, 0.929549902152642, 0.931506849315068, 0.933463796477495,
0.935420743639922, 0.937377690802348, 0.939334637964775, 0.941291585127201,
0.943248532289628, 0.945205479452055, 0.947162426614481, 0.949119373776908,
0.951076320939335, 0.953033268101761, 0.954990215264188, 0.956947162426614,
0.958904109589041, 0.960861056751468, 0.962818003913894, 0.964774951076321,
0.966731898238748, 0.968688845401174, 0.970645792563601, 0.972602739726027,
0.974559686888454, 0.976516634050881, 0.978473581213307, 0.980430528375734,
0.98238747553816, 0.984344422700587, 0.986301369863014, 0.98825831702544,
0.990215264187867, 0.992172211350294, 0.99412915851272, 0.996086105675147,
0.998043052837573, 1), pro.d.y = c(0, 0.0124763366981593, 0.0141124551851867,
0.0159018210787856, 0.0178518210828018, 0.0199740509194942, 0.0223445527492011,
0.0249064839074225, 0.0276662964727761, 0.0306302708705622, 0.0338545211312297,
0.0373385397435565, 0.0410496060511471, 0.0449918664776745, 0.0491758970805405,
0.0536901895276933, 0.0584490455650341, 0.0634544237153568, 0.0687081431462095,
0.0742700062159316, 0.0801277089300282, 0.086240025634052, 0.0926086975186578,
0.0992440060892446, 0.106239285811027, 0.113504059066459, 0.121044019265177,
0.128865573418761, 0.137048548852888, 0.145593863797181, 0.154467617291928,
0.163685889084493, 0.173280379056521, 0.183418988934254, 0.193997374886688,
0.205045023363949, 0.21659280832808, 0.228818951343029, 0.241754902638203,
0.255354359835895, 0.269660574110284, 0.284751550765693, 0.300974352004478,
0.318105788417593, 0.336193761251992, 0.355285850148719, 0.37570768608243,
0.397453045785548, 0.420391899838677, 0.444560692193431, 0.470052830600742,
0.497323432291453, 0.525934510701712, 0.55589495930279, 0.587210052668763,
0.620209479614381, 0.654737312164808, 0.690555064040503, 0.727627117977952,
0.765968447827405, 0.805823333992903, 0.846691934407899, 0.888496561425915,
0.931155864506105, 0.974725912749141, 1.01894272802093, 1.06358946338081,
1.10855652184076, 1.15373258418124, 1.19891666804584, 1.24392280480721,
1.28863577510934, 1.33294134574882, 1.37653543493332, 1.41927889838227,
1.46115790850083, 1.50208011643625, 1.54188812802516, 1.58010796114519,
1.61704327373793, 1.65264078703095, 1.68685158559086, 1.71924489000963,
1.74994440160701, 1.77914340182238, 1.80683605037902, 1.8329284799749,
1.85702633860664, 1.87966618832539, 1.90087561596266, 1.92068458372179,
1.93878680429694, 1.95543121172768, 1.97084637077113, 1.98507694736024,
1.99809848497021, 2.00970880002476, 2.0203323177052, 2.03001268341046,
2.03879277291169, 2.04650577512196, 2.05333770822687, 2.05943314402644,
2.06482425018454, 2.06949798196726, 2.07333994584229, 2.07659348278548,
2.07927970501823, 2.08141886898654, 2.08289568306932, 2.0838167309169,
2.08426362597097, 2.08425136563913, 2.08376347737203, 2.08272129413889,
2.0812848925494, 2.07947064189011, 2.07729538738197, 2.07469292214384,
2.07175241370009, 2.06853824861803, 2.06507440050244, 2.06137194834198,
2.05743920123393, 2.05338026815633, 2.04922923154637, 2.04502128439529,
2.04081183457356, 2.03667849489226, 2.03266717082546, 2.02882485726764,
2.02522571223853, 2.02203770460098, 2.0192476674025, 2.01691496522578,
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2.01590202326501, 2.01841515958639, 2.02236038715918, 2.02751514911719,
2.03395909497369, 2.0417722975773, 2.0515066820042, 2.06304583606758,
2.07630508949246, 2.09136419448661, 2.1084876952701, 2.12825404999518,
2.15014999861247, 2.17424485778335, 2.2006062832039, 2.23002312279098,
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2.61956960340193, 2.67771334572469, 2.73852719993077, 2.80198177705806,
2.86829607508334, 2.93788571360972, 3.00990094479677, 3.08426858458271,
3.16091081580917, 3.24034038243829, 3.3219275671303, 3.40533998955121,
3.49044957580254, 3.57725694079797, 3.66572547223431, 3.75521994794363,
3.84555419923005, 3.93653584878367, 4.02795152621416, 4.11931406838431,
4.21034136592417, 4.30077594829744, 4.39020281325105, 4.47783699125228,
4.56363022834507, 4.64726414556742, 4.72841524545307, 4.80564182077226,
4.87897706777627, 4.94833350100604, 5.01335537401227, 5.07307996209023,
5.1259118810479, 5.17287726780172, 5.21364011252759, 5.24787000019841,
5.27287709283815, 5.28975954430921, 5.29886896386876, 5.29997375028775,
5.29185426024869, 5.27278869421654, 5.24503234244234, 5.20852067701082,
5.16320857873499, 5.10629616085988, 5.04001017913819, 4.96520581342729,
4.88204743797809)), .Names = c("pro.d.x", "pro.d.y"), row.names = 301:512, class = "data.frame")
I generally shade a polygon region fairly easy using plot() and polygon() like this:
plot(dat,xlim = c(0,1), ylim = c(0,10), bty = 'n', xlab = NA, ylab = NA, main = NA, yaxs='i', xaxs = 'i', las = 1, cex = 0)
polygon(dat, col = 'green')
However this plot looks like this:
Its shading some type of inverse of what I would like, and adding this very straight line. Any idea how I could shade all regions below the line?
The concept of polygon() is to connect all the points in order and at last it will link the last point to the first one. (That is why the straight line is created) To deal with it, you need to make an additional vertex c(1, 0) as a relay between the first and last points.
polygon(rbind(dat, c(1, 0)), col = 'green')
i am facing a problem in plot ols estimations in a scatterplot:
I have this data frame: With 9 columns and 99 rows:
structure(list(Y = c(-0.145442175, 0.291096141, 0.489923112,
-2.038363166, 1.180430664, 0.188114666, 0.850922634, 1.172142766,
-3.980837975, 0.285762444, 2.497040646, 0.658010994, -0.925171981,
0.37076995, -1.108211119, -0.409242669, -1.234583525, -0.385841816,
0.016744771, -0.584406288, 1.17224811, -0.746804388, -0.625028046,
0.257871468, -2.735845346, 2.619304857, -0.406825232, 0.323665151,
2.218951363, -0.821029648, -0.872854889, -2.663306158, -0.121976044,
0.881566376, -1.972706678, -3.855576256, 2.927421113, 1.314753531,
0.234296206, 0.828464757, -0.909318569, 0.616134903, -0.567630403,
0.624571064, -0.414112923, 0.642200314, -0.309421266, 0.195312598,
-0.519988256, 0, 0.081070175, 0.032446432, -0.534025032, -0.426783307,
-0.38495511, -0.207900219, -1.953789746, -0.616924355, -0.783222881,
-1.935420969, 0.638445535, 1.080925923, -1.598076681, 0.25063631,
-0.697183766, 0.188971653, -0.415267389, -4.154506044, 1.163226552,
0.036569698, -0.547147074, 1.11937374, 0.383311682, -0.875037781,
-0.372684863, 0.306816004, -1.250561544, -1.042237738, -1.757788446,
0.021079982, 1.844023775, 1.674645753, -0.428546132, -0.527705597,
0.542202572, -0.621479123, -0.050415867, -0.122332943, 0.468553764,
0.216998274, 3.088480781, 0.434099931, 2.114916704, -2.407018936,
-0.127060127, 0.546756422, 0.263207486, 0.63453915, 0.76832746
), X = c(0.009476137, -0.0236354, 0.0094081, 0.11715252, 0.032324021,
0.0461193, 0.050794971, 0.032372819, 0.202121874, 0.390821859,
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0.22494711, 0.226621495, 0.411607624, 0.089200478, -0.013454832,
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0.024006869, -0.019250912, -0.02399429, 0.038421097, 0.062320065,
0.07187025, 0.024019462, 0.038421097, 0.033539309, 0.014351457,
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-0.063314884, -0.092537576, -0.165375956, -0.15042398), Null = c(-0.036795117836493,
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0.221388292373518, 0.087380368104602, -0.189831042487278, -0.452154909992189,
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0.0165138860659871, 0.0915102566139487, 0.100284493544177, 0.265652059802101,
0.230938443729295, 0.257246215885006, 0.281209408151878, 0.188533028671265,
-0.00201164134414489, 0.0110851592192505, 0.0481858583559124,
0.0237904823161768, 0.094614581053392, 0.0882862377341187, 0.241468070168396,
0.234837060900023, 0.162029971029324, 0.176601607696189, 0.168307425791361,
0.0759851164110966, 0.109970788582389, 0.0703849242291975, -0.059492586621119,
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0.136388667637584, 0.105222539655097, 0.197385328960716, 0.127361748973716,
0.0554268640818151, 0.0678473149754353, 0.0330232883757411, 0.0197208677278167,
0.0707862239701058, 0.0885648870712001, 0.216820906265572, 0.286245951224793,
0.247258814186372, 0.138394666330137, 0.122716205945161, 0.103719679674083,
0.148789344619283, 0.197893429730301, 0.168006688568371, 0.189742414352596,
0.165430712615822, 0.133664933948451, 0.11833998959919, 0.0720581343490991,
0.0270069004188009, 0.077834296346802, 0.0653403280475977, 0.100918894574441,
0.176071877748707, 0.162219750035618), OLS_1 = c(-2.97674658085357,
-2.95792547866683, -2.97674412477729, -2.7937460366665, -2.96913739819288,
-2.95639989365184, -2.95069150171007, -2.96910314906723, -2.3856485268894,
-0.647452287114872, -2.68293610049662, -2.670570393744, -2.10297963546522,
-2.84137496711892, -2.84927190111917, -2.23638642750757, -2.22477621905134,
-0.385841816000001, -2.87715002139054, -2.96747293407547, -2.96740133507642,
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-2.9175506236826, -2.94755679517459, -2.82290206987746, -2.83914454134393,
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-2.94427256930162, -2.86349763526591, -2.88884317216564, -2.80553055841713,
-2.47811758528604, -2.55927025907886), OLS_2 = c(-2.83865555876367,
-2.82203271957637, -2.83865550287755, -2.66277932892391, -2.83073328950317,
-2.8182826854432, -2.81275284604234, -2.83069942358793, -2.27571536741022,
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-2.80953310903525, -2.73477077084888, -2.75830410348864, -2.68083005992821,
-2.37496906485549, -2.4508827380889), OLS_3 = c(-2.58083646581942,
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-2.27258448425562, -2.21873931960315, -2.23587705524471, -2.17915915787995,
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-2.1274826763545, -2.14613692884822, -2.038363166, -2.14482079785526,
-2.13839956793073, -2.1352633011825, -2.14480554064275, -1.77137087834078,
-0.604458131512312, -1.92044345866761, -1.91142894340333, -1.5035051350835,
-2.03720410348948, -2.07364942604987, -1.67230210256299, -1.66457879312031,
-0.427523081653794, -2.09111249534671, -2.1358169999572, -2.13575175544593,
-1.44873737433719, -2.14509683128765, -2.12442374236989, -2.02946586195686,
-2.01185030632841, -0.994510606111227, -1.42450007218492, -1.12983335353955,
-0.596198212559954, -1.7115906309286, -2.13555900800151, -2.12811588444992,
-2.09509015766854, -2.11889016916752, -2.02341958358771, -2.03553614239934,
-1.32305159796573, -1.38891263096519, -1.83141440901763, -1.76969899713653,
-1.80596583024281, -2.05682837956465, -1.99043348930533, -2.06558998487816,
-2.14664801486533, -2.13135448546891, -2.1271468279034, -2.14250449627423,
-2.12545741758249, -2.11509475538252, -2.1466464083569, -2.14250449627423,
-2.14442504670383, -2.14684049810003, -2.13838680613343, -2.1468398441846,
-2.14583791450693, -2.14156460788614, -2.14633891192499, -2.14114136796206,
-2.05492693125432, -2.10632999229998, -2.08080895764288, -1.90090288083161,
-1.88144765246016, -1.93417313784094, -2.01325520240903, -1.9281579797124,
-1.92007377040746, -2.00120005643771, -1.66327168223962, -1.94624457366434,
-2.08634430885867, -2.06937728900294, -2.11086434271986, -2.12206882778948,
-2.06498074945642, -2.03501978622706, -1.5377512452434, -0.29431817292714,
-1.25902518147068, -1.91393009686737, -1.95881793980313, -2.00449939786682,
-1.88004274517372, -1.66034827254381, -1.80722288608151, -1.70526848086161,
-1.81783189921089, -1.92822084254891, -1.97013652098612, -2.0630309651189,
-2.1162243283256, -2.0538104595074, -2.07300962091288, -2.0105124912345,
-1.7721107506457, -1.83066883021211)), .Names = c("Y", "X", "Null",
"OLS_1", "OLS_2", "OLS_3", "OLS_4", "OLS_5", "OLS_6"), row.names = c(NA,
99L), class = "data.frame")
My scatter plot will consist of the first column (Y) and the second column (X).
The third column i will not use.
From the fourth column are the curves that are fitted values of OLS regressions.
How do I include them using the plot function?
i am doing this, but its not working
plot(data[,2],data[,1])
for(i in 4:9){
lines(data[,i])
}
What am i doing wrong?
Basically you want
data <- data[order(data$X), ] ## reordering so that `X` is increasing
plot(data$X, data$Y)
for (i in 4:9) {
lines(data$X, data[,i], col = i) ## remember to set `x-coordinates`
}
legend("topright", legend = names(data)[4:9], col = 4:9, lty = 1) ## add legend
We used the R library forecast to make predictions for the next 24 hours. We have the following:
fore_cast=forecast.tbats(model,h=24,level=90)
fore_cast
Point Forecast Lo 90 Hi 90
5.380952 6270.778 5389.089 7296.643
5.386905 5458.096 4557.375 6536.743
5.392857 5219.995 4248.967 6412.814
5.398810 5187.102 4126.390 6520.328
Now we have 2 problems:
We need 'time' (in hour e.g. 01,23,19 etc) instead of 'point'.
We wish to plot the trendline against time showing the actual observed
values against these predicted values. We have loaded actual observed
values from a CSV file.
We tried:
actual_data = read.csv('actualdata.csv')
plot(actual_data,fore_cast)
Doesn't work, and using plot(actual_data) just shows some points in a straight line instead of curved trendline.
EDIT:
Sample output of fore_cast from dput:
structure(list(model = structure(list(lambda = 0.000438881055939422,
alpha = 0.65694875480321, beta = -0.0983972877836753, damping.parameter = 0.800419363290521,
gamma.one.values = c(-0.00150031474145603, -0.00124696854910294
), gamma.two.values = c(0.0023600487982342, -0.002465549595849
), ar.coefficients = NULL, ma.coefficients = NULL, likelihood = 13202.294346586,
optim.return.code = 0L, variance = 0.00855092137349485, AIC = 13258.294346586,
parameters = structure(list(vect = c(0.000438881055939422,
0.65694875480321, 0.800419363290521, -0.0983972877836753,
-0.00150031474145603, -0.00124696854910294, 0.0023600487982342,
-0.002465549595849), control = structure(list(use.beta = TRUE,
use.box.cox = TRUE, use.damping = TRUE, length.gamma = 4L,
p = 0, q = 0), .Names = c("use.beta", "use.box.cox",
"use.damping", "length.gamma", "p", "q"))), .Names = c("vect",
"control")), seed.states = structure(c(7.44188559667267,
0.00357069100887873, -0.0664300680553579, 0.0229067500159256,
0.00460111570469819, -0.00772324725408007, -0.000610110386029883,
0.00568378752162509, -0.0084050648066819, -0.0324093004247092,
-0.000720936399990958, -0.00705790547321605, -0.00738992950838566,
0.00180424326179638, -0.00107745502434416, 0.00242014705705761,
-0.01824679745657, 0.0123019701003545, -0.0245935735677402,
0.0181321397860132), .Dim = c(20L, 1L)), fitted.values = structure(c(1598.57443298879,
1435.74973092922, 1397.92464316794, 1296.90202189518, 1440.3201303663,
1544.11695101118, 1777.97079874181, 1766.50571671645, 1925.27360388028,
1863.26963233038, 1773.08363764691, 1887.26580055295, 1887.48006609474,
1841.66200850472, 1991.90290660363, 2233.04775631848, 2081.30246965768,
1872.12639817609, 1899.38583561568, 2213.43437455052, 2214.00832820531,
1745.36311914995, 1678.67975050944, 1502.35472259274, 1512.27350460399,
1456.14165844166, 1464.3803467642, 1517.99443293857, 1484.54280422369,
1382.37041287489, 1452.43700910726, 1545.16934543365, 1440.50974319508,
1475.59742668699, 1544.88546424501, 1790.95280713647, 1916.4267023671,
1928.72804180587, 1819.15839770808, 1916.43079357329, 1836.80043977753,
1720.25638746452, 1730.03629161412, 1614.6048115754, 1599.23641723244,
1635.86950932066, 1543.46360784778, 1641.35066985679, 1608.60556151299,
1651.47649465456, 1475.15006990464, 1403.67294742438, 1507.58932406857,
1666.3170708439, 1696.06132797576, 1543.32187293056, 1704.58043626911,
1914.72424191575, 2109.33624862625, 2092.98934458578, 2222.13355258602,
2084.68677709368, 1962.9230489947, 2045.61547393981, 2140.30565941261,
2097.46130996426, 2126.07936955385, 2226.18935508502, 2269.54492801286,
2300.37314952852, 2398.48786829541, 2303.31270702723, 2332.74139979969,
2146.51487558643, 2101.27480789243, 2111.61910899422, 2053.57840714969,
2046.56606362537, 2073.82870990658, 2094.88831798868, 2334.85185938782,
2541.72156227893, 2502.36031483721, 2398.12240784327, 2266.35832277135,
2151.05248890962, 2266.88803633019, 2366.19453856405, 2399.97570044332,
2341.74959623409, 2144.33465155869, 2102.91952061083, 2214.48622101851,
2179.48115699957, 2288.28092735955, 2224.55218736155, 2195.1506809087,
2163.94619334319, 2161.41843642149, 2134.75060670667, 2138.77895768654,
2142.84680080931, 2258.55072549978, 2297.90237035988, 2314.94197015208,
2300.99928929609, 2277.39754662665, 2291.06980363364, 2487.04257346235,
2381.05768214413, 2509.40078456481, 2657.61336243367, 2528.65026804303,
2434.2722174014, 2366.04811963942, 2270.6647135766, 2231.33965004538,
2376.51043520344, 2249.42861599343, 2193.98771109322, 2252.12327312365,
2210.76969838623, 2180.50451255189, 2221.92898123682, 2537.84678083006,
2329.57350097532, 2252.82349908982, 2143.92033677754, 2092.3142840022,
2084.70304624685, 2111.18929138546, 2160.05383108999, 2280.94409931504,
2118.22029344747, 2214.65738250204, 2269.05911898631, 2084.26658709038,
2016.04764576402, 2095.57091797435, 2161.07354463394, 2427.77607700887,
2333.91103594967, 2234.23838054763, 2250.71557301013, 2186.97925802073,
2129.51096829218, 2115.40228652934, 2094.89231085691, 2086.41044567131,
2180.94542608489, 2105.38187642016, 2459.45788915933, 2292.36325639374,
2410.75372754831, 2375.56640249604, 2491.11938114866, 2470.51372278037,
2464.95765202085, 2600.85929020727, 2709.48518695182, 2779.77558137814,
2518.29927341458, 2344.06621605191, 2391.56719713269, 2368.68842788795,
2199.93530349068, 2113.92970206565, 2458.96718445444, 3121.97852988865,
2559.40932439262, 2331.12829078836, 2238.54586985577, 2241.91440620202,
2225.29804576634, 2154.14147781021, 2060.57980596908, 2037.30100544426,
2215.93410789353, 2364.42668160056, 2518.72871618042, 2537.34279365294,
2473.76096855791, 2623.63387707374, 2589.08335304697, 2577.0563838788,
2349.53279218826, 2305.52193868551, 2232.63712180453, 2167.50003597208,
2320.23187534213, 2281.86365949586, 2281.21119271599, 2323.2014703372,
2185.94404743238, 2140.21863271207, 2011.67723856012, 1966.52063119589,
2002.67344212857, 1952.41101080662, 1988.37461163105, 2126.75137749373,
2239.14722292367, 2320.98046489603, 2444.91847853015, 2431.69548763034,
2514.73820659393, 2505.85249387343, 2888.19773974179, 2853.20690693738,
2502.20865871069, 2524.56894781003, 2659.52271740553, 2615.9025930681,
2923.69327019152, 2754.76074569658, 2784.59488335761, 2874.24378479002,
2683.41908597168, 2733.83011888159, 2774.1325162997, 2906.41593326865,
2726.06821502751, 2460.21579967528, 2450.8035097605, 2547.39389733175,
2625.60323572861, 2827.94083526683, 2971.92012845614, 3042.90981987278,
2835.00811374845, 2846.98066660519, 2871.21876763166, 2901.99696373824,
2627.47532996657, 2583.75084300313, 2602.68041642846, 2632.8054092953,
2667.85374690972, 2639.10586730146, 2466.95799545022, 2381.06823502402,
2531.32611053776, 2407.14812148706, 2342.75701798463, 2401.73791085847,
2365.50645844524, 2404.50408575777, 2452.57343738519, 2613.15332739214,
2665.50965844576, 2723.8237337447, 2915.09266385617, 2890.17498445896,
2853.6278331055, 2868.1228183545, 2917.07803535669, 2876.59409770233,
2577.82035337979, 2581.91435020803, 2520.20342021937, 2603.37973251208,
2536.03988578365, 2510.83398648802, 2472.80606784857, 2425.51212342113,
2442.02863541673, 2465.73405821711, 2384.42988766816, 2555.51500549788,
2737.77091706275, 2425.00224845814, 2460.17325671183, 2639.16650619329,
2816.37024420397, 2755.69999167982, 2802.64991688288, 2685.12803367301,
2521.77568128564, 2500.99980614696, 2620.41659854805, 2529.25134423133,
2590.14804885984, 2318.80485234464, 2341.88940012276, 2460.21008281205,
2513.70688167177, 2437.71670675479, 2383.29782281743, 2499.36244454453,
2472.98602901478, 2491.10649022417, 2350.1405559119, 2362.78308814045,
2431.3911847573, 2321.15216823049, 2355.74203614213, 2429.60523843166,
2355.61947983433, 2346.3751018515, 2453.82214513707, 2542.98125962684,
2342.43364707529, 2302.17741211575, 2388.93541944219, 2435.41878657221, ....
Sample output from dput for actual observed values:
structure(list(index12 = c(6297.416944, 5406.865556, 4718.355556,
5304.729167, 4968.014722, 5081.130833, 5544.955, 4655.009444,
4269.023056, 4346.588333, 4511.455833, 5102.57, 4818.673333,
4862.343056, 4785.176667, 5385.005278, 6469.080833, 7166.025278,
7010.708333, 511.114167)), .Names = "index12", class = "data.frame", row.names = c(NA,
-20L))
The value of Point is unusual in spite of hour unit data. I think you failed to make a model.
Here is my example:
actual_data <- structure(list(index12 = c(6297.416944, 5406.865556, 4718.355556,
5304.729167, 4968.014722, 5081.130833, 5544.955, 4655.009444,
4269.023056, 4346.588333, 4511.455833, 5102.57, 4818.673333,
4862.343056, 4785.176667, 5385.005278, 6469.080833, 7166.025278,
7010.708333, 511.114167)),
.Names = "index12", class = "data.frame", row.names = c(NA, -20L))
# I suppose that actual_data was taken per hour.
num_actual <- as.numeric(actual_data[,1])
model <- bats(num_actual)
fore_cast <- forecast(model, h=24, level=90)
fore_cast # Point is from 21 to 44 because of length(actual_data)=20 and demanding predictions for the next 24 hours
# Point Forecast Lo 90 Hi 90
# 21 5063.207 2902.187 7224.226
# 22 5108.114 2946.988 7269.241
# :
# 44 5108.114 2944.629 7271.600
# plot() has forecast method. It draws actual_data and prediction, and paints Lo90-Hi90.
plot(fore_cast, main="")