I am using the auto.arima() function in the forecast package in R. I performed a Box-Cox transformation (lambda = 0.02492832, if you're curious). My data are on the order of 10^9 and is exhibiting increasing variance after differencing twice, so I think B-C is appropriate. Strangely, the residuals are on the order of 10^-2. Not sure if I have discovered a crystal ball or if I'm missing something in the way residuals are calculated when using a B-C transformation in auto.arima(). Are the residuals also transformed?
The residuals are on the scale of the transformed data. If you want to compute data - fitted instead, use fitted() to obtain the fitted values.
If the variance is equal to k, the lambda component of the residual is the coefficient of k. Thus lambda(k)=10^9.
There is something missing in the box-cox transformation which is generating increasing variances.
It is the forecast ''k''.
Yes, the residuals are transformed. We simply 10^-2 to the forecast k.
This value generates a new forecast.
Related
When using the GAMLSS package in R, there are many different ways to fit a distribution to a set of data. My data is a single vector of values, and I am fitting a distribution over these values.
My question is this: what is the main difference between using fitDist() and gamlss() since they give similar but different answers for parameter values, and different worm plots?
Also, using the function confint() works for gamlss() fitted objects but not for objects fitted with fitDist(). Is there any way to produce confidence intervals for parameters fitted with the fitDist() function? Is there an accuracy difference between the two procedures? Thanks!
m1 <- fitDist()
fits many distributions and chooses the best according to a
generalized Akaike information criterion, GAIC(k), wit penalty k for each
fitted parameter in the distribution, where k is specified by the user,
e.g. k=2 for AIC,
k = log(n) for BIC,
k=4 for a Chi-squared test (rounded from 3.84, the 5% critical value of a Chi-squared distribution with 1 degree of fereedom), which is my preference.
m1$fits
gives the full results from the best to worst distribution according to GAIC(k).
I'm performing dimensionality reduction using the psych package. After analyzing the scree plot I decided to use the 9 most important PCs (out of 15 variables) to build a linear model.
My question is, how do I extract the values of the 9 most important PCs for each of the 500 observations I have? Is there any built in function for that, or do I have to manually compute it using the loadings matrix?
Returns eigen values, loadings, and degree of fit for a specified number of components after performing an eigen value decomposition. Essentially, it involves doing a principal components analysis (PCA) on n principal components of a correlation or covariance matrix. Can also display residual correlations.By comparing residual correlations to original correlations, the quality of the reduction in squared correlations is reported. In contrast to princomp, this only returns a subset of the best nfactors. To obtain component loadings more characteristic of factor analysis, the eigen vectors are rescaled by the sqrt of the eigen values.
principal(r, nfactors = 1, residuals = FALSE,rotate="varimax",n.obs=NA, covar=FALSE,
scores=TRUE,missing=FALSE,impute="median",oblique.scores=TRUE,
method="regression",...)
I think So.
I am using the rcorr function within the Hmisc package in R to develop Pearson correlation coefficients and corresponding p-values when analyzing the correlation of several fishery landings time series. The data isn't really important here but what I would like to know is: how are the p-values calculated for this? It states that the asymptotic P-values are approximated by using the t or F distributions but I am wondering if someone could help me find some more information on this or an equation that describes how exactly these values are calculated.
My response variable is Yijk corresponding to the recovery time of
patient i (i=1,...,I)
with treatment j (j=1,...,J)
and measured at time k (k=1,...,K)
I would like to fit the following model:Model equation, where:
μ is a global fixed intercept
αj is a fixed effect for the treatment
bik is a random effect with the following covariance structure. Denote bi the K-dimensional vector of effect for the patient i, then its variance-covariance matrix would have the following AR(1) structure.
Variance covariance matrix
uijk is the usual error term with variance σ²
Consider the following line of command:
lme(recovery ~ treatment, method="REML", random=~1|patient, correlation=corAR1,form=~time|patient,data=data)
Several questions:
What does this correlation argument correspond to? The structure of covariance of what? Is that the var-cov matrix which I defined as R?
Does the line actually do what I would like to?
If not, what does it do?
If not, is there a way to do what I would like to?
Thank you in advance!
First, you have a command lme, I will assume that is meant to be nlme because a) lme isn't an R command in any package that I know of or that R could find and b) correlation isn't an option in lme4
Second, in the documentation for nlme they have this:
an optional corStruct object describing the within-group correlation
structure. See the documentation of corClasses for a description of
the available corStruct classes. Defaults to NULL, corresponding to no
within-group correlations.
and in corClasses it says
corAR1 autoregressive process of order 1.
So, the answers to your first two questions appears to be "Yes".
I think this is a basic question, but maybe I am confusing the concepts.
Suppose I fit an ARIMA model to a time series using, for example, the function auto.arima() in the R forecast package. The model assumes constant variance. How do I obtain that variance? Is it the variance of the residuals?
If I use the model for forecasting, I know that it gives me the conditional mean. I'd like to know the (constant) variance as well.
Thank you.
Bruno
from the arima() help I see
sigma2
the MLE of the innovations variance.
var.coef
the estimated variance matrix of the
coefficients coef, which can be extracted
by the vcov method.
It seems like which you want will depend on your model. I am pretty sure you want sigma2.
to get the sigma2 do:
?arima
x=cumsum(rcauchy(1000))
aax=auto.arima(x)
str(aax)
aax$sigma2