just had a quick question on using Step AIC to make prediction. I'm a beginner in R, so please pardon if the solution is obvious. Tried searching around but couldn't really find what I was looking for.
So I'm trying to predict the response variable, after running stepwise AIC on a main model (main model has all the explanatory variables). The stepAIC gives out a new model that has a reduced number of variables. My question is how do I do an out of sample prediction using the new reduced model. In other words, how does I reduce the dataset so that when I feed it into predict.lm, it only has the variables that were selected in the reduced model.
Here's my code below:
# Specify start and end row of the first 5 year window
start_row=1
end_row=60
#declare matrix that will contain the predicted returns by specifying dimensions
predicted=matrix(0,179,7)
y_var=as.matrix(orig_data[start_row:end_row,2:7])
x_var=as.matrix(orig_data[start_row:end_row,8:27])
# Perform linear regression on all factors and then select factors using stepwise AIC method
initial_model<- lm(y_var[,1]~x_var[,1]+x_var[,2]+x_var[,3]+x_var[,4]+x_var[,5]+x_var[,6]+x_var[,7]+x_var[,8]+x_var[,9]+x_var[,10]+x_var[,11]+x_var[,12]+x_var[,13]+x_var[,14]+x_var[,15]+x_var[,16]+x_var[,17]+x_var[,18]+x_var[,19]+x_var[,20])
reduced_model<-stepAIC(initial_model, direction="both")
reduced_coefs<-t(as.matrix(coef(reduced_model)))
x_input<-as.matrix(x_var[60,])
Basically how do I multiply the coefficients that I get from the reduced model to only the corresponding explanatory variables in "x_var" (which has all the explanatory variables)
Thanks a lot for your help!
Related
can you please help with this question in R, i need to get more than one predictor:
Fit multiple linear regression without an intercept with the function lm() to train data
using variable (y.train) as a goal variable and variables (X.mat.train) as
predictors. Look at the vector of estimated coefficients of the model and compare it with
the vector of ’true’ values beta.vec graphically
(Tip: build a plot for the differences of the absolute values of estimated and true values).
i have already tried it out with a code i will post at the end but it give me only one predictor but in this example i need to get more than one predictor:
and i think the wrong one is the first line but i couldn't find a way to fix it :
i can't put the data set here it's large but i have a variable that stores 190 observation from a victor (y.train) and another value that stores 190 observation from a matrix (X.mat.trian).. should give more than one predictor but for me it's giving one..
simple.fit = lm(y.train~0+ X.mat.train) #goal var #intercept # predictor
summary(simple.fit)# Showing the linear regression output
plot(simple.fit)
abline(simple.fit)
n <- summary(simple.fit)$coefficients
estimated_coeff <- n[ , 1]
estimated_coeff
plot(estimated_coeff)
#Coefficients: X.mat.train 0.5018
v <- sum(beta.vec)
#0.5369
plot(beta.vec)
plot(beta.vec, simple.fit)
modelo <- lm( P3J_IOP~ PräOP_IOP +OPTyp + P3J_Med, data = na.omit(df))
summary(modelo)
Error:
Fehler in step(modelo, direction = "backward") :
Number of lines used has changed: remove missing values?
I have a lot of missing values in my dependent variable P3J_IOP.
Has anyone any idea how to create the model?
tl;dr unfortunately, this is going to be hard.
It is fairly difficult to make linear regression work smoothly with missing values in the predictors/dependent variables (this is true of most statistical modeling approaches, with the exception of random forests). In case it's not clear, the problem with stepwise approaches with missing data in the predictor is:
incomplete cases (i.e., observations with missing data for any of the current set of predictors) must be dropped in order to fit a linear model;
models with different predictor sets will typically have different sets of incomplete cases, leading to the models being fitted on different subsets of the data;
models fitted to different data sets aren't easily comparable.
You basically have the following choices:
drop any predictors with large numbers of missing values, then drop all cases that have missing values in any of the remaining predictors;
use some form of imputation, e.g. with the mice package, to fill in your missing data (in order to do proper statistical inference, you need to do multiple imputation, which may be hard to combine with stepwise regression).
There are some advanced statistical techniques that will allow you to simultaneously do the imputation and the modeling, such as the brms package (here is some documentation on imputation with brms), but it's a pretty big hammer/jump in statistical sophistication if all you want to do is fit a linear model to your data ...
I'm relatively new to glm - so please bear with me.
I have created a glm (logistic regression) to predict whether an individual CONTINUES studies ("0") or does NOTCONTINUE ("1"). I am interested in predicting the latter. The glm uses seven factors in the dataset and the confusion matrices are very good for what I need and combining seven years' of data have also been done. Straight-forward.
However, I now need to apply the model to the current years' data, which of course does not have the NOTCONTINUE column in it. Lets say the glm model is "CombinedYears" and the new data is "Data2020"
How can I use the glm model to get predictions of who will ("0") or will NOT ("1") continue their studies? Do I need to insert a NOTCONTINUE column into the latest file ?? I have tried this structure
Predict2020 <- predict(CombinedYears, data.frame(Data2020), type = 'response')
but the output only holds values <0.5.
Any help very gratefully appreciated. Thank you in advance
You mentioned that you already created a prediction model to predict whether a particular student will continue studies or not. You used the glm package and your model name is CombinedYears.
Now, what you have to know is that your problem is a binary classification and you used logistic regression for this. The output of your model when you apply it on new data, or even the same data used to fit the model, is probabilities. These are values between zero and one. In the development phase of your model, you need to determine the cutoff threshold of these probabilities which you can use later on when you predict new data. For example, you may determine 0.5 as a cutoff, and every probability above that is considered NOTCONTINUE and below that is CONTINUE. However, the best threshold can be determined from your data as well by maximizing both specificity and sensitivity. This can be done by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). There are many packages than can do this for you, such as pROC and AUC packages in R. The same packages can determine the best cutoff as well.
What you have to do is the following:
Determine the cutoff threshold after calculating the AUC
library(pROC)
roc_object = roc(your_fit_data$NOTCONTINUE ~ fitted(CombinedYears))
coords(roc.roc_object, "best", ret="threshold", transpose = FALSE)
Use your model to predict on your new data year (as you did)
Predict2020 = predict(CombinedYears, data.frame(Data2020), type = 'response')
Now, the content of Predict2020 is just probabilities for each
student. Use the cutoff you obtained from step (1) to classify your
students accordingly
I'm new to R and statistical modelling, and am looking to use the lmmlasso library in r to fit a mixed effects model, selecting only the best fixed effects out of ~300 possible variables.
For this model I'd like to include both a fixed intercept, a random effect, and a random intercept. Looking at the manual on CRAN, I've come across the following:
x: matrix of dimension ntot x p including the fixed-effects
covariables. An intercept has to be included in the first column as
(1,...,1).
z: random effects matrix of dimension ntot x q. It has to be a matrix,
even if q=1.
While it's obvious what I need to do for the fixed intercept I'm not quite sure how to include both a random intercept and effect. Is it exactly the same as the fixed matrix, where I include (1...1) in my first column?
In addition to this, I'm looking to validate the resulting model I get with another dataset. For lmmlasso is there a function similar to predict in lme4 that can be used to compute new predictions based on the output I get? Alternatively, is it viable/correct to construct a new model using lmer using the variables with non-zero coefficients returned by lmmlasso, and then use predict on the new model?
Thanks in advance.
I have fit my discrete count data using a variety of functions for comparison. I fit a GEE model using geepack, a linear mixed effect model on the log(count) using lme (nlme), a GLMM using glmer (lme4), and a GAMM using gamm4 (gamm4) in R.
I am interested in comparing these models and would like to plot the expected (predicted) values for a new set of data (predictor variables). My goal is to compare the predicted effects for each model under particular conditions (x variables). Of particular interest is the comparison between marginal (GEE) and conditional estimates.
I think my main problem might be getting the new data in the correct form with the correct labels and attributes and such. I am still very much an R novice and struggle with this stuff (no course on this at my university unfortunately).
I currently have fitted models
gee1 lme1 lmer1 gamm1
and can extract their fixed effect coefficients and standard errors without a problem. I also don't have a problem converting them from the log scale or estimating confidence intervals accounting for the random effects.
I also have my new dataframe newdat which has 365 observations of 23 variables (average environmental data for each day of the year).
I am stuck on how to predict new count estimates from this. I played around with the model.matrix function but couldn't get it to work. For example, I tried:
mm = model.matrix(terms(glmm1), newdat) # Error in model.frame.default(object,
# data, xlev = xlev) : object is not a matrix
newdat$pcount = mm %*% fixef(glmm1)
Any suggestions or good references would be greatly appreciated. Can anyone help with the error above?
Getting predictions for lme() and lmer() is documented on http://glmm.wikidot.com/faq