I want to conduct a convergence study for my Dymos optimization results where I vary the number of nodes and compare the simulated solution to the optimization solution. From what I understand, Dymos fits polynomials to the system dynamics to represent the timeseries solution. What is the best way to compare the polynomial trajectory of the optimization solution to the trajectory of the simulated solution? I specifically want to evaluate the difference between the two trajectories away from the collocation/control nodes... to show that the polynomial fitting actually represents the simulated solution. How would I access the polynomial fitting data?
Thanks in advance.
For some of the testing we have an assert_timeseries_near_equal function that treats the more dense time series as the truth and tests that the less dense timeseries (usually the discrete solution) is reasonably close to it.
We're actually working on this method a bit more explicit right now so it's a little easier for users to apply in general cases, such as comparing discrete solutions from two different cases.
In general, there's a few different ways you can test your explicit results against an explicit integration. You could just verify that the final states of the two solutions are reasonably close. Since the error tends to increase over the course of the trajectory this is often good enough for a quick check. The downside of this approach is that it doesn't test that both solutions took the same path to the final condition.
To test the solution away from the nodes I'd recommend the following: Add a second timeseries output to the relevant phase that contains more segments or higher order segments. This timeseries will have more nodes. Dymos will interpolate from the solution's collocation grid onto this more dense timeseries output grid. Comparing this against the explicit simulation should still match exactly in terms of times, controls, and parameters, you'll better capture the interpolating state polynomials vs the explicitly simulated results.
There are other statistical methods out there for comparing timeseries that you can bring to bear, but visualizing the explicit trajectory plus some error bound as a "tube" into which we want to fit the discrete solution is usually how I handle it.
Related
I´ve a question regarding k-means clustering. We have a dataset with 120,000 observations and need to compute a k-means cluster solution with R. The problem is that k-means usually use Euclidean Distance. Our dataset consists of 3 continous variables, 11 ordinal (Likert 0-5) (i think it would be okay to handle them like continous) and 5 binary variables. Do you have any suggestion for a distance measure that we can use for our k-means approach with regards to the "large" dataset? We stick to k-means, so I really hope one of you has a good idea.
Cheers,
Martin
One approach would be to normalize the features and then just use the 11-dimensional
Euclidean Distance. Cast the binary values to 0/1 (Well, it's R, so it does that anyway) and go from there.
I don't see an immediate problem with this method other than k-means in 11 dimensions will definitely be hard to interpret. You could try to use a dimensionality reduction technique and hopefully make the k-means output easier to read, but you know way more about the data set than we ever could, so our ability to help you is limited.
You can certainly encode there binary variables as 0,1 too.
It is a best practise in statistics to not treat likert scale variables as numeric, because of that uneven distribution.
But I don't you will get meaningful k-means clusters. That algorithm is all about computing means. That makes sense on continuous variables. Discrete variables usually lack "resolution" for this to work well. Three mean then degrades to a "frequency" and then the data should be handled very differently.
Do not choose the problem by the hammer. Maybe your data is not a nail; and even if you'd like to make it with kmeans, it won't solve your problem... Instead, formulate your problem, then choose the right tool. So given your data, what is a good cluster? Until you have an equation that measures this, handing the data won't solve anything.
Encoding the variables to binary will not solve the underlying problem. Rather, it will only aid in increasing the data dimensionality, an added burden. It's best practice in statistics to not alter the original data to any other form like continuous to categorical or vice versa. However, if you are doing so, i.e. the data conversion then it must be in sync with the question to solve as well as you must provide valid justification.
Continuing further, as others have stated, try to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset first. Check for issues like, missing values, outliers, zero variance, principal component analysis (continuous variables), correspondence analysis (for categorical variables) etc. This can help you reduce the dimensionality. After all, data preprocessing tasks constitute 80% of analysis.
Regarding the distance measure for mixed data type, you do understand the mean in k will work only for continuous variable. So, I do not understand the logic of using the algorithm k-means for mixed datatypes?
Consider choosing other algorithm like k-modes. k-modes is an extension of k-means. Instead of distances it uses dissimilarities (that is, quantification of the total mismatches between two objects: the smaller this number, the more similar the two objects). And instead of means, it uses modes. A mode is a vector of elements that minimizes the dissimilarities between the vector itself and each object of the data.
Mixture models can be used to cluster mixed data.
You can use the R package VarSelLCM which models, within each cluster, the continuous variables by Gaussian distributions and the ordinal/binary variables.
Moreover, missing values can be managed by the model at hand.
A tutorial is available at: http://varsellcm.r-forge.r-project.org/
I have ran clv package which consists of S_Dbw and SD validity indexes for clustering purposes in R commander. (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/clv/index.html)
I evaluated my clustering results from DBSCAN, K-Means, Kohonen algorithms with S_Dbw index. but for all these three algorithms S_Dbw is "Inf".
Is it "Infinite" meaning? Why did i confront with "Inf". Is there any problem in my clustering results?
In general, when is S_Dbw index result "Inf"?
Be careful when comparing different algorithms with such an index.
The reason is that the index is pretty much an algorithm in itself. One particular clustering will necessarily be the "best" for each index. The main difference between an index and an actual clustering algorithm is that the index doesn't tell you how to find the "best" solution.
Some examples: k-means minimizes the distances from cluster members to cluster centers. Single-link hierarchical clustering will find the partition with the optimal minimum distance between partitions. Well, DBSCAN will find the partitioning of the dataset, where all density-connected points are in the same partition. As such, DBSCAN is optimal - if you use the appropriate measure.
Seriously. Do not assume that because one algorithm scores higher than another in a particular measure means that the algorithm works better. All that you find out this way is that a particular algorithm is more (cor-)related to a particular measure. Think of it as a kind of correlation between the measure and the algorithm, on a conceptual level.
Using a measure for comparing different results of the same algorithm is different. Then obviously there shouldn't be a benefit from one algorithm over itself. There might still be a similar effect with respect to parameters. For example the in-cluster distances in k-means obviously should go down when you increase k.
In fact, many of the measures are not even well-defined on DBSCAN results. Because DBSCAN has the concept of noise points, which the indexes do not AFAIK.
Do not assume that the measure will either give you an indication of what is "true" or "correct". And even less, what is useful or new. Because you should be using cluster analysis not to find a mathematical optimum of a particular measure, but to learn something new and useful about your data. Which probably is not some measure number.
Back to the indices. They usually are totally designed around k-means. From a short look at S_Dbw I have the impression that the moment one "cluster" consists of a single object (e.g. a noise object in DBSCAN), the value will become infinity - aka: undefined. It seems as if the authors of that index did not consider this corner case, but only used it on toy data sets where such situations did not arise. The R implementation can't fix this, without diverting from the original index and instead turning it into yet another index. Handling noise objects and singletons is far from trivial. I have not yet seen an index that doesn't fail in one way or another - typically, a solution such as "all objects are noise" will either score perfect, or every clustering can trivially be improved by putting each noise object to the nearest non-singleton cluster. If you want your algorithm to be able to say "this object doesn't belong to any cluster" then I do not know any appropriate index.
The IEEE floating point standard defines Inf and -Inf as positive and negative infinity respectively. It means your result was too large to represent in the given number of bits.
If I have a function f(x) = y that I don't know the form of, and if I have a long list of x and y value pairs (potentially thousands of them), is there a program/package/library that will generate potential forms of f(x)?
Obviously there's a lot of ambiguity to the possible forms of any f(x), so something that produces many non-trivial unique answers (in reduced terms) would be ideal, but something that could produce at least one answer would also be good.
If x and y are derived from observational data (i.e. experimental results), are there programs that can create approximate forms of f(x)? On the other hand, if you know beforehand that there is a completely deterministic relationship between x and y (as in the input and output of a pseudo random number generator) are there programs than can create exact forms of f(x)?
Soooo, I found the answer to my own question. Cornell has released a piece of software for doing exactly this kind of blind fitting called Eureqa. It has to be one of the most polished pieces of software that I've ever seen come out of an academic lab. It's seriously pretty nifty. Check it out:
It's even got turnkey integration with Amazon's ec2 clusters, so you can offload some of the heavy computational lifting from your local computer onto the cloud at the push of a button for a very reasonable fee.
I think that I'm going to have to learn more about GUI programming so that I can steal its interface.
(This is more of a numerical methods question.) If there is some kind of observable pattern (you can kinda see the function), then yes, there are several ways you can approximate the original function, but they'll be just that, approximations.
What you want to do is called interpolation. Two very simple (and not very good) methods are Newton's method and Laplace's method of interpolation. They both work on the same principle but they are implemented differently (Laplace's is iterative, Newton's is recursive, for one).
If there's not much going on between any two of your data points (ie, the actual function doesn't have any "bumps" whose "peaks" are not represented by one of your data points), then the spline method of interpolation is one of the best choices you can make. It's a bit harder to implement, but it produces nice results.
Edit: Sometimes, depending on your specific problem, these methods above might be overkill. Sometimes, you'll find that linear interpolation (where you just connect points with straight lines) is a perfectly good solution to your problem.
It depends.
If you're using data acquired from the real-world, then statistical regression techniques can provide you with some tools to evaluate the best fit; if you have several hypothesis for the form of the function, you can use statistical regression to discover the "best" fit, though you may need to be careful about over-fitting a curve -- sometimes the best fit (highest correlation) for a specific dataset completely fails to work for future observations.
If, on the other hand, the data was generated something synthetically (say, you know they were generated by a polynomial), then you can use polynomial curve fitting methods that will give you the exact answer you need.
Yes, there are such things.
If you plot the values and see that there's some functional relationship that makes sense, you can use least squares fitting to calculate the parameter values that minimize the error.
If you don't know what the function should look like, you can use simple spline or interpolation schemes.
You can also use software to guess what the function should be. Maybe something like Maxima can help.
Wolfram Alpha can help you guess:
http://blog.wolframalpha.com/2011/05/17/plotting-functions-and-graphs-in-wolframalpha/
Polynomial Interpolation is the way to go if you have a totally random set
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_interpolation
If your set is nearly linear, then regression will give you a good approximation.
Creating exact form from the X's and Y's is mostly impossible.
Notice that what you are trying to achieve is at the heart of many Machine Learning algorithm and therefor you might find what you are looking for on some specialized libraries.
A list of x/y values N items long can always be generated by an degree-N polynomial (assuming no x values are the same). See this article for more details:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_interpolation
Some lists may also match other function types, such as exponential, sinusoidal, and many others. It is impossible to find the 'simplest' matching function, but the best you can do is go through a list of common ones like exponential, sinusoidal, etc. and if none of them match, interpolate the polynomial.
I'm not aware of any software that can do this for you, though.
I'm trying to design a nonlinear fitness function where I maximize variable A and minimize the variable B. The issue is that maximizing A is much more important at single digit values, almost logarithmic. B needs to be minimized and in contrast to A, it becomes less important when small (less than one) and more important when it's larger (>1), so exponential decay.
The main goal is to optimize A, so I guess an analog is A=profits, B=costs
Should I aim to keep everything positive so that the I can use a roulette wheel selection, or would it be better to use a rank/torunament kind of system? The purpose of my algorithm is shape optimization.
Thanks
When considering a multi-objective problem the goal is usually to identify all solutions that lie on the Pareto curve - the Pareto optimal set. Have a look here for a 2-dimensional visual example. When the algorithm completes you want a set of solutions that are not dominated by any other solution. You therefore need to define a pareto ranking mechanism to take into account both objectives - for a more in depth explanation, as well as links to even more reading, go here
With this in mind, in order to effectively explore all solutions along the pareto front you do not want an implementation that encourages premature convergence, otherwise your algorithm will only explore the search space in one specific area of the Pareto curve. I would implement a selection operator that keeps all members of each iteration's optimal set of solutions, that is all solutions which are not dominated by another + plus a parameter controlled percentage of other solutions. This way you encourage exploration all along the Pareto curve.
You also need to ensure your mutation and crossover operators are tuned correctly too. With any novel application of Evolutionary Algorithms, part of the problem is trying to identify an optimal parameter set for the problem domain... this is where it gets really interesting!!
The description is very vague, but assuming that you actually have an idea of what the function should look like and you're just wondering whether you need to modify it so that proportional selection can be used easily, then no. Regardless of fitness function, you should probably default to using something like tournament selection. Controlling selection pressure is one of the most important things you have to do in order to get consistently good results, and roulette wheel selection doesn't allow you that control. You typically get enormous pressure very early, which drives premature convergence. That might be preferable in a few cases, but it's not where I'd start my investigations.
I'm analyzing financial data and would like to find the inflection points of a line. I know I can do this using derivatives, but first I need an equation. Is there a way to generate an equation based off of a series of numbers. I would need to do this programmaticly.
Spline interpolation is probably more useful for you than polynomial interpolation: if you fit a polynomial, it must inevitably head off to +/- infinity outside your data range.
You will also want a method which allows a slightly loose fit: financial data is often a bit noisy which can result in very weird curves if you try to fit it exactly.
There are established procedures for turning a set of existing data points into a polynomial; this is called Polynomial Interpolation. This article in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_interpolation
explains it mathematically. You can probably Google for algorithms easily enough.
Given enough points, your polynomial tracks the original, unknown function reasonably well, so the polynomial's inflection points should roughly coincide with the peaks and troughs of your data.
On the other hand, we all know there's not really a function behind financial data. So if I were you I'd scan along those points and find every point that has a smaller value to either side of it, and declare that a high; and vice versa for lows. Force-fitting this data into a fictitious function isn't going to make it any more useful.
Update: Tom Smith advises that spline interpolation is to be preferred to polynomial interpolation for this kind of thing, and Wikipedia bears him out. Or rather, it's bullish on his answer.
What you are thinking is analytical calculus ... when having discrete data (e.g. points), you have to do it numerically. Now, a line usually doesn't have inflection points, so I guess you're thinking of a curve. You can either interpolate some kind of it through the points, then calculate the first derivative (also numerically, but for a larger number of points), or you can just calculate the first derivation from the points you have (which will be better depends on how many points you actually have).
But really, this is just theory since we don't know the nature of data, or the language or anything.
For more on the subject search: numerical analysis on wiki, and go from there.
I think curve fitting might help you in this case. Here is a discussion which might be handy.
cheers