Example of fitting marginal distributions to histogram in R - r

Could someone show me how to fit a polynomial marginal distribution to my data? I have done a binomial and beta binomial, but I would like to see how to fit a polynomial. I would also be interested in trying a gamma if that is something you know how to do.
This is what I have done so far.
nodes <- read.table("https://web.stanford.edu/~hastie/CASI_files/DATA/nodes.txt",
header = T)
nodes %>%
ggplot(aes(x=x/n))+
geom_histogram(bins = 30)+
theme_bw()+
labs(x = "nodes",
n = "p=x/n")
# log-likelihood function
ll <- function(alpha, beta) {
x <- nodes$x
total <- nodes$n
-sum(VGAM::dbetabinom.ab(x, total, alpha, beta, log = TRUE))
}
# maximum likelihood estimation
m <- mle(ll, start = list(alpha = 1, beta = 10), method = "L-BFGS-B",
lower = c(0.0001, .1))
ab <- coef(m)
alpha0 <- ab[1]
beta0 <- ab[2]
nodes %>%
ggplot() +
geom_histogram(aes(x/n, y = ..density..), bins= 30) +
stat_function(fun = function(x) dbeta(x, alpha0, beta0), color = "red",
size = 1) +
xlab("p=x/n")
Here is another fit
ll <- function(a){
x <- nodes$x
total <- nodes$n
-sum(stats::dbinom(x, total, a, log = TRUE))
}
#stats::dbinom()
m <- mle(ll, start = list(a=.5), method = "L-BFGS-B",
lower = c(0.0001, .1))
a = coef(m)
nodes %>%
ggplot() +
geom_histogram(aes(x/n, y = ..density..), bins=40) +
stat_function(fun = function(x) dbeta(x, a, 1), color = "red",
size = 1) +
xlab("proportion x/n")

For fitting a gamma distribution:
data(iris)
library(MASS) ##for the fitdistr function
fit.params <- fitdistr(iris$Sepal.Length, "gamma", lower = c(0, 0))
ggplot(data = iris) +
geom_histogram(data = as.data.frame(x), aes(x=iris$Sepal.Length, y=..density..)) +
geom_line(aes(x=iris$Sepal.Length,
y=dgamma(iris$Sepal.Length,fit.params$estimate["shape"],
fit.params$estimate["rate"])), color="red", size = 1) +
theme_classic()
You might also like to take a look at the distribution of the quantiles using the qqp function in the car package. Here are a few examples:
library(car)
qqp(iris$Sepal.Length, "norm") ##normal distribution
qqp(iris$Sepal.Length, "lnorm") ##log-normal distribution
gamma <- fitdistr(iris$Sepal.Length, "gamma")
qqp(iris$Sepal.Length, "gamma", shape = gamma$estimate[[1]],
rate = gamma$estimate[[2]]) ##gamma distribution
nbinom <- fitdistr(iris$Sepal.Length, "Negative Binomial")
qqp(iris$Sepal.Length, "nbinom", size = nbinom$estimate[[1]],
mu = nbinom$estimate[[2]]) ##negative binomial distribution
You can use the fitdistr function for ggplots or qqPlots. It supports lots of different distributions. Take a look at ?fitdistr

Related

pROC package: ci.se. How are the CI calculated?

I have two questions:
I am using the pROC package to calculate the CI of the ROC curve for a logistic regression model and a random forest model. What I cannot understand is which algorithm is used for this computation. Is it the vertical averaging algorithm? Tom Fawsett's paper mentions, "Confidence intervals of the mean of tp rate are computed using the common
assumption of a binomial distribution." Does he mean normal approximation? Moreover the curve that I am plotting is the average curve?
forest <- randomForest(factor(extreme, levels = c("Yes", "No"))~ tas + X0+X1+X2+X3+X4+X5+X8,
train_df, ntree = 500, na.omit = TRUE)
Random_Forest <- predict(forest, test_df, type = "prob")[,2]
roc <- roc(test_df$extry, Random_Forest , plot=TRUE, legacy.axes=TRUE)
Logistic_Regression <- predict(model,test_df, type='response')
roc <- roc(test_df$extry, Logistic_Regression, plot=TRUE,legacy.axes=TRUE)
roc.list <- roc(test_df$extry ~ Logistic_Regression+Random_Forest,legacy.axes=TRUE)
ci.list <- lapply(roc.list, ci.se, specificities = seq(0, 1, .1), boot.n=2000, stratified=TRUE, conf.level=0.95,parallel = TRUE)
dat.ci.list <- lapply(ci.list, function(ciobj)
data.frame(x = as.numeric(rownames(ciobj)),
lower = ciobj[, 1],
upper = ciobj[, 3]))
p <- ggroc(roc.list,legacy.axes=TRUE,aes = c("linetype")) +
labs(x = "False Positive Rate", y = "True Positive Rate", linetype="Model")+
scale_linetype_discrete(labels=c("Logistic Regression","Random Forest"))+
theme_classic() +
geom_abline(slope=1, intercept = 1, linetype = "dashed", alpha=0.7, color = "grey") +
coord_equal()
for(i in 1:2) {
p <- p + geom_ribbon(
data = dat.ci.list[[i]],
aes(x = 1-x, ymin = lower, ymax = upper),
fill = i + 1,
alpha = 0.2,
inherit.aes = F)
}
p
Can I use the pROC package to calculate CI in the test datasets obtained from cross-validation? So, for example, if I want to use 10-fold validation for the logistic regression model, I will have 10 ROC curves. The part of the code:roc.list <- roc(test_df$extry ~ Logistic_Regression+Random_Forest,legacy.axes=TRUE) will not work since the data are not the same in the 10 different test datasets. Any idea?

Fit and plot a Weibull model to a survival data

I want to achieve the exact same thing asked in this question:
How to plot the survival curve generated by survreg (package survival of R)?
Except for the fact that I don't want the data to be stratified by a variable (in the question above it was stratified by sex).
I just want the progression free survival for the whole group of treated patients.
So when I copy the code from the other question, here is where I get stuck:
library(survminer)
library(tidyr)
s <- with(lung,Surv(time,status))
fKM <- survfit(s ~ sex,data=lung)
sWei <- survreg(s ~ as.factor(sex),dist='weibull',data=lung) # in my case here I would replace as.factor(sex) by 1
pred.sex1 = predict(sWei, newdata=list(sex=1),type="quantile",p=seq(.01,.99,by=.01)) #Since I don't want to stratify, what do I do with these 2 lines of code?
pred.sex2 = predict(sWei, newdata=list(sex=2),type="quantile",p=seq(.01,.99,by=.01))
df = data.frame(y=seq(.99,.01,by=-.01), sex1=pred.sex1, sex2=pred.sex2)
df_long = gather(df, key= "sex", value="time", -y)
p = ggsurvplot(fKM, data = lung, risk.table = T)
p$plot = p$plot + geom_line(data=df_long, aes(x=time, y=y, group=sex))
I tried replacing as.factor(sex) by 1 and then the rest of the code just does not make sense, can someone help me with this?
Many thanks in advance!
If you just want to plot the overall empirical survival curve, you might do something like this:
library(survival)
library(survminer)
library(tidyr)
s <- with(lung, Surv(time, status))
fKM <- survfit(s ~ 1, data = survival::lung)
ggsurvplot(fKM, ggtheme = theme_bw())
However, if you want to fit a Weibull model with no predictors, then your formula is fine.
sWei <- survreg(s ~ 1, dist = 'weibull', data = lung)
probs <- seq(0.01, 1, by = 0.01)
time <- predict(sWei, type = "quantile", se = TRUE, p = probs)
The only problem is that time is now a named list of two matrices: fit and se.fit. Both have the same number of rows as lung, but all rows are identical, so we just take one from each and calculate the confidence interval in a data frame which we can then use to create a ggplot:
ggplot(data = data.frame(p = 1 - probs,
time = time$fit[1,],
upper = time$fit[1,] + 1.96 * time$se.fit[1,],
lower = time$fit[1,] - 1.96 * time$se.fit[1,])) +
geom_step(aes(p, time, colour = "All"), size = 1) +
geom_ribbon(aes(p, ymin = lower, ymax = upper, fill = "All"), alpha = 0.2) +
coord_flip(ylim = c(0, 1000)) +
scale_fill_discrete(name = "Strata") +
scale_color_discrete(name = "Strata") +
theme_bw() +
theme(legend.position = "top")
Which we can see looks like a pretty good fit.
If you want both in the same plot you can do something like:
df <- data.frame(p = 1 - probs,
time = time$fit[1,],
upper = time$fit[1,] + 1.96 * time$se.fit[1,],
lower = time$fit[1,] - 1.96 * time$se.fit[1,])
ggsurvplot(fKM, ggtheme = theme_bw())$plot +
geom_line(data = df, aes(time, p), linetype = 2, size = 1) +
geom_line(data = df, aes(upper, p), linetype = 2, size = 1) +
geom_line(data = df, aes(lower, p), linetype = 2, size = 1)
Created on 2020-08-18 by the reprex package (v0.3.0)

How do I propagate the error of a linear regression when projecting from Y to X?

I'm trying to figure out how to propagate errors in the following case
I am calibrating a machine with a couple of standards (a, b, c) with
accepted values x. My machine measures y for these standards, with a
certain error (standard deviation of 1 in this example).
Then I measure replicates of a sample, yielding ynew. Now I want to
convert these values to the accepted measurement scale (the x-axis).
To do this, I can of course do some linear algebra and convert the slope and
intercept that I got from my standard measurements to a reversed slope and
intercept as follows
This works nicely to convert the input values, but how do I get proper estimates of the errors?
In R, I've tried the following:
library(broom) # for tidy lm
library(ggplot2) # for plotting
library(dplyr) # to allow piping
# find confidence value
cv <- function(x, level = 95) {
qt(1 - ((100 - level) / 100) / 2, df = length(x) - 1) * sd(x) / sqrt(length(x))
}
# find confidence interval
ci <- function(x, level = 95) {
xbar <- mean(x)
xci <- cv(x, level = level)
c(fit = xbar, lwr = xbar - xci, upr = xbar + xci)
}
set.seed(1337)
# create fake data
dat <- data.frame(id = rep(letters[1:3], 20),
x = rep(c(1, 7, 10), 20)) %>%
mutate(y = rnorm(n(), -20 + 1.25 * x, 1))
# generate linear model
mod <- lm(y ~ x, dat)
# tidy
mod_aug <- augment(mod)
# these are the new samples that my machine measures
ynew <- rnorm(10, max(dat$y) + 3)
# predict new x-value based on y-value that is outside of range
## predict(mod, newdata = data.frame(y = ynew), interval = "predict")
# Error in eval(predvars, data, env) : object 'x' not found
# or tidy
## augment(mod, newdata = data.frame(y = ynew))
# 50 row df that doesn't make sense
# found this function that should do the job, but it doesn't extrapolate
## approx(x = mod$fitted.values, y = dat$x, xout = ynew)$y
# [1] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
# this one from Hmisc does allow for extrapolation
with_approx <- Hmisc::approxExtrap(x = mod_aug$.fitted, y = mod_aug$x, xout = ynew)$y
# but in case of lm, isn't using the slope and intercept of a model okay too?
with_itc_slp <- (- coef(mod)[1] / coef(mod)[2]) + (1 / coef(mod)[2] * ynew)
# this would be the 95% prediction interval of the model at the average
# sample position. Could also use "confidence" but this is more correct?
avg_prediction <- predict(mod,
newdata = data.frame(x = mean(with_itc_slp)),
interval = "prediction")
# plot it
ggplot(dat, aes(x = x, y = y, col = id)) +
geom_point() +
geom_hline(yintercept = ynew, col = "gray") +
geom_smooth(aes(group = 1), method = "lm", se = F, fullrange = T,
col = "lightblue") +
geom_smooth(aes(group = 1), method = "lm") +
# 95% CI of the new sample
annotate("pointrange", x = 1, y = mean(ynew),
ymin = ci(ynew)[2], ymax = ci(ynew)[3], col = "green") +
# 95% prediction interval of the linear model at the average transformed
# x-position
annotate("pointrange", x = mean(with_approx), y = mean(ynew),
ymin = avg_prediction[2], ymax = avg_prediction[3], col = "green") +
# transformed using approx
annotate("point", x = with_approx, y = ynew, size = 3, col = "blue",
shape = 1) +
# transformed using intercept and slope
annotate("point", x = with_itc_slp, y = ynew, size = 3, col = "red",
shape = 2) +
# it's pretty
coord_fixed()
resulting in this plot:
Now how do I go from these 95% CIs in the y-direction to transformed sample
x-values with a confidence interval in the x-direction?

Include weibull fit in ggsurvplot

I would like to fit a weibull curve to some event data and then include the fitted weibull curve in a survival plot plotted by survminer::ggsurvplot. Any ideas of how?
Here is an example to work on:
A function for simulating weibull data:
# N = sample size
# lambda = scale parameter in h0()
# rho = shape parameter in h0()
# beta = fixed effect parameter
# rateC = rate parameter of the exponential distribution of C
simulWeib <- function(N, lambda, rho, beta, rateC)
{
# covariate --> N Bernoulli trials
x <- sample(x=c(0, 1), size=N, replace=TRUE, prob=c(0.5, 0.5))
# Weibull latent event times
v <- runif(n=N)
Tlat <- (- log(v) / (lambda * exp(x * beta)))^(1 / rho)
# censoring times
C <- rexp(n=N, rate=rateC)
# follow-up times and event indicators
time <- pmin(Tlat, C)
status <- as.numeric(Tlat <= C)
# data set
data.frame(id=1:N,
time=time,
status=status,
x=x)
}
generate data
set.seed(1234)
betaHat <- rep(NA, 1e3)
for(k in 1:1e3)
{
dat <- simulWeib(N=100, lambda=0.01, rho=1, beta=-0.6, rateC=0.001)
fit <- coxph(Surv(time, status) ~ x, data=dat)
betaHat[k] <- fit$coef
}
#Estimate a survival function
survfit(Surv(as.numeric(time), x)~1, data=dat) -> out0
#plot
library(survminer)
ggsurvplot(out0, data = dat, risk.table = TRUE)
gg1 <- ggsurvplot(
out0, # survfit object with calculated statistics.
data = dat, # data used to fit survival curves.
risk.table = TRUE, # show risk table.
pval = TRUE, # show p-value of log-rank test.
conf.int = TRUE, # show confidence intervals for
# point estimaes of survival curves.
xlim = c(0,2000), # present narrower X axis, but not affect
# survival estimates.
break.time.by = 500, # break X axis in time intervals by 500.
ggtheme = theme_minimal(), # customize plot and risk table with a theme.
risk.table.y.text.col = T, # colour risk table text annotations.
risk.table.y.text = FALSE,
surv.median.line = "hv",
color = "darkgreen",
conf.int.fill = "lightblue",
title = "Survival probability",# show bars instead of names in text annotations
# in legend of risk table
)
gg1
As far as I see this, it is not possible do it with ggsurvplot at this moment.
I created an issue requesting this feature: https://github.com/kassambara/survminer/issues/276
You can plot survivor curves of a weibull model with ggplot2 like this:
library("survival")
wbmod <- survreg(Surv(time, status) ~ x, data = dat)
s <- seq(.01, .99, by = .01)
t_0 <- predict(wbmod, newdata = data.frame(x = 0),
type = "quantile", p = s)
t_1 <- predict(wbmod, newdata = data.frame(x = 1),
type = "quantile", p = s)
smod <- data.frame(time = c(t_0, t_1),
surv = rep(1 - s, times = 2),
strata = rep(c(0, 1), each = length(s)),
upper = NA, lower = NA)
head(surv_summary(cm))
library("ggplot2")
ggplot() +
geom_line(data = smod, aes(x = time, y = surv, color = factor(strata))) +
theme_classic()
However to my knowledge you cannot use survminer (yet):
library("survminer")
# wrong:
ggsurvplot(smod)
# does not work:
gg1$plot + geom_line(data = smod, aes(x = time, y = surv, color = factor(strata)))
The following works for me. Probably the credit goes to Heidi filling a feature request.
Hope, someone finds this useful.
library(survminer)
library(tidyr)
s <- with(lung,Surv(time,status))
sWei <- survreg(s ~ as.factor(sex),dist='weibull',data=lung)
fKM <- survfit(s ~ sex,data=lung)
pred.sex1 = predict(sWei, newdata=list(sex=1),type="quantile",p=seq(.01,.99,by=.01))
pred.sex2 = predict(sWei, newdata=list(sex=2),type="quantile",p=seq(.01,.99,by=.01))
df = data.frame(y=seq(.99,.01,by=-.01), sex1=pred.sex1, sex2=pred.sex2)
df_long = gather(df, key= "sex", value="time", -y)
p = ggsurvplot(fKM, data = lung, risk.table = T)
p$plot = p$plot + geom_line(data=df_long, aes(x=time, y=y, group=sex))

graphing confidence intervals nls r

I'm in the process of putting some incidence data together for a proposal. I know that the data takes on a sigmoid shape overall so I fit it using NLS in R. I was trying to get some confidence intervals to plot as well so I used bootstrapping for the parameters, made three lines and here's where I'm having my problem. The bootstrapped CIs give me three sets of values, but because of equation the lines they are crossing.
Picture of Current Plot with "Ideal" Lines in Black
NLS is not my strong suit so perhaps I'm not going about this the right way. I've used mainly a self start function to this point just to get something down on the plot. The second NLS equation will give the same output, but I've put it down now so that I can alter later if needed.
Here is my code thus far:
data <- readRDS(file = "Incidence.RDS")
inc <- nls(y ~ SSlogis(x, beta1, beta2, beta3),
data = data,
control = list(maxiter = 100))
b1 <- summary(inc)$coefficients[1,1]
b2 <- summary(inc)$coefficients[2,1]
b3 <- summary(inc)$coefficients[3,1]
inc2 <- nls(y ~ phi1 / (1 + exp(-(x - phi2) / phi3)),
data = data,
start = list(phi1 = b1, phi2 = b2, phi3 = b3),
control = list(maxiter = 100))
inc2.boot <- nlsBoot(inc2, niter = 1000)
phi1 <- summary(inc2)$coefficients[1,1]
phi2 <- summary(inc2)$coefficients[2,1]
phi3 <- summary(inc2)$coefficients[3,1]
phi1_L <- inc2.boot$bootCI[1,2]
phi2_L <- inc2.boot$bootCI[2,2]
phi3_L <- inc2.boot$bootCI[3,2]
phi1_U <- inc2.boot$bootCI[1,3]
phi2_U <- inc2.boot$bootCI[2,3]
phi3_U <- inc2.boot$bootCI[3,3]
#plot lines
age <- c(20:95)
mean_incidence <- phi1 / (1 + exp(-(age - phi2) / phi3))
lower_incidence <- phi1_L / (1 + exp(-(age - phi2_L) / phi3_L))
upper_incidence <- phi1_U / (1 + exp(-(age - phi2_U) / phi3_U))
inc_line <- data.frame(age, mean_incidence, lower_incidence, upper_incidence)
p <- ggplot()
p <- (p
+ geom_point(data = data, aes(x = x, y = y), color = "darkgreen")
+ geom_line(data = inc_line,
aes(x = age, y = mean_incidence),
color = "blue",
linetype = "solid")
+ geom_line(data = inc_line,
aes(x = age, y = lower_incidence),
color = "blue",
linetype = "dashed")
+ geom_line(data = inc_line,
aes(x = age, y = upper_incidence),
color = "blue",
linetype = "dashed")
+ geom_ribbon(data = inc_line,
aes(x = age, ymin = lower_incidence, ymax = upper_incidence),
fill = "blue", alpha = 0.20)
+ labs(x = "\nAge", y = "Incidence (per 1,000 person years)\n")
)
print(p)
Here's a link to the data.
Any help on what to do next or if this is even possible given my current set up would be appreciated.
Thanks
Try plot.drc in the drc package.
library(drc)
fm <- drm(y ~ x, data = data, fct = LL.3())
plot(fm, type = "bars")
P.S. Please include the library calls in your questions so that the code is self contained and complete. In the case of the question here: library(ggplot2); library(nlstools) .

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