Visualize Multilevel Growth Model with nlme/ggplot2 vs lme4/ggplot2 - r

Question

I am trying to visualize the results of an nlme object without success. When I do so with an lmer object, the correct plot is created. My goal is to use nlme and visualize a fitted growth curve for each individual with ggplot2. The predict() function seems to work differently with nlme and lmer objects.
model:
#AR1 with REML
autoregressive <- lme(NPI ~ time,
data = data,
random = ~time|patient,
method = "REML",
na.action = "na.omit",
control = list(maxlter=5000, opt="optim"),
correlation = corAR1())
nlme visualization attempt:
data <- na.omit(data)
data$patient <- factor(data$patient,
levels = 1:23)
ggplot(data, aes(x=time, y=NPI, colour=factor(patient))) +
geom_point(size=1) +
#facet_wrap(~patient) +
geom_line(aes(y = predict(autoregressive,
level = 1)), size = 1)
when I use:
data$fit<-fitted(autoregressive, level = 1)
geom_line(aes(y = fitted(autoregressive), group = patient))
it returns the same fitted values for each individual and so ggplot produces the same growth curve for each. Running test <-data.frame(ranef(autoregressive, level=1)) returns varying intercepts and slopes by patient id. Interestingly, when I fit the model with lmer and run the below code it returns the correct plot. Why does predict() work differently with nlme and lmer objects?
timeREML <- lmer(NPI ~ time + (time | patient),
data = data,
REML=T, na.action=na.omit)
ggplot(data, aes(x = time, y = NPI, colour = factor(patient))) +
geom_point(size=3) +
#facet_wrap(~patient) +
geom_line(aes(y = predict(timeREML)))

Answer 1

In creating a reproducible example, I found that the error was not occurring in predict() nor in ggplot() but instead in the lme model.
Data:
###libraries
library(nlme)
library(tidyr)
library(ggplot2)
###example data
df <- data.frame(replicate(78, sample(seq(from = 0,
to = 100, by = 2), size = 25,
replace = F)))
##add id
df$id <- 1:nrow(df)
##rearrange cols
df <- df[c(79, 1:78)]
##sort columns
df[,2:79] <- lapply(df[,2:79], sort)
##long format
df <- gather(df, time, value, 2:79)
##convert time to numeric
df$time <- factor(df$time)
df$time <- as.numeric(df$time)
##order by id, time, value
df <- df[order(df$id, df$time),]
##order value
df$value <- sort(df$value)
Model 1 with no NA values fits successfully.
###model1
model1 <- lme(value ~ time,
data = df,
random = ~time|id,
method = "ML",
na.action = "na.omit",
control = list(maxlter=5000, opt="optim"),
correlation = corAR1(0, form=~time|id,
fixed=F))
Introducing NA's causes invertible coefficient matrix error in model 1.
###model 1 with one NA value
df[3,3] <- NA
model1 <- lme(value ~ time,
data = df,
random = ~time|id,
method = "ML",
na.action = "na.omit",
control = list(maxlter=2000, opt="optim"),
correlation = corAR1(0, form=~time|id,
fixed=F))
But not in model 2, which has a more simplistic within-group AR(1) correlation structure.
###but not in model2
model2 <- lme(value ~ time,
data = df,
random = ~time|id,
method = "ML",
na.action = "na.omit",
control = list(maxlter=2000, opt="optim"),
correlation = corAR1(0, form = ~1 | id))
However, changing opt="optim" to opt="nlminb" fits model 1 successfully.
###however changing the opt to "nlminb", model 1 runs
model3 <- lme(value ~ time,
data = df,
random = ~time|id,
method = "ML",
na.action = "na.omit",
control = list(maxlter=2000, opt="nlminb"),
correlation = corAR1(0, form=~time|id,
fixed=F))
The code below visualizes model 3 (formerly model 1) successfully.
df <- na.omit(df)
ggplot(df, aes(x=time, y=value)) +
geom_point(aes(colour = factor(id))) +
#facet_wrap(~id) +
geom_line(aes(y = predict(model3, level = 0)), size = 1.3, colour = "black") +
geom_line(aes(y = predict(model3, level=1, group=id), colour = factor(id)), size = 1)
Note that I am not exactly sure what changing the optimizer from "optim" to "nlminb" does and why it works.