Prevent a nls-fit from falling below zero - r

I'm trying to fit a function in R and therefor I use nls().
Is there a way to prevent the fitted function from falling below zero?
An easy work around would be to rise the parameter b0 in the target function after the fit, but this is actually not what I want because I expect a real fit with the constraint of beeing positive to lead to a better result.
y=c(m1,m2,m3,m4,m5,m6,m7,m8,m9,m10)
d=data.frame(seq(1, 10, 1),y=y)
fitFun <- function(x, add, b0, b1) {b0 + (x+add)^b1}
m=nls(y~fitFun(x,add,intercept,power),d,start=list(intercept=1,power=3.5,add=2),trace=T)

Are you looking for this? Constraining the parameters to make the prediction non-negative can be tricky if the prediction is a hard-to-invert function of the parameters, but in this case we just have to require b0>=0 ... using #Roland's example,
fit2 <- nls(y~b0+(x+add)^b1,
algorithm="port",
lower=c(b0=0,b1=-Inf,add=-Inf),
data=df,start=list(b0=1,b1=3.5,add=2))
lines(predict(fit2)~df$x,col="purple")
In the following the blue is the original unconstrained fit; red is #Roland's fit; and purple is the fit above.

You need to change your model. For that you need to define what should happen if the function values would fall below zero. Here is an example, which sets these values to 0.
x <- 1:200/100
set.seed(42)
y <- -10+(x+1)^3.5+rnorm(length(x),sd=3)
df <- data.frame(x,y)
plot(y~x,data=df)
fitFun <- function(x, add, b0, b1) {
res <- b0 + (x+add)^b1
res[res<0] <- 0
res
}
fit <- nls(y~fitFun(x,add,intercept,power),
data=df,start=list(intercept=1,power=3.5,add=2))
summary(fit)
lines(predict(fit)~df$x,col="red")

Thanks a lot for the answers. Maybe I didn't give enough information about my problem, but I'm not yet allowed to post pictures and describing everything would have led to a short story.
#Roland was perfectly right it's not the optimizers task to care about the behaviour of the target function, but as I mentioned I assume the model to be fix.
#Ben Bolker's suggestion to limit the additive part of the function to positive values led to an unsatifying result.
What I didn't mention was that m1 to m10 are mean values of a data collection I recorded. I solved my problem by using the variance of the recorded series as weights during the fitting process.
y=c(m1,m2,m3,m4,m5,m6,m7,m8,m9,m10)
d=data.frame(seq(1, 10, 1),y=y)
vars = c(var(lt1$V1),var(lt2$V1),var(lt3$V1),var(lt4$V1),var(lt5$V1),var(lt6$V1),var(lt7$V1),var(lt8$V1),var(lt9$V1),var(lt10$V1))
weights = rep(max(vars),10)/vars
fitFun <- function(x, add, b0, b1) {b0 + (x+add)^b1}
m=nls(y~fitFun(x,add,intercept,power),d,weights=weights,start=list(intercept=1,power=3.5,add=2),trace=T)

Related

Using optim to choose initial values for nls

One method I have seen in the literature is the use of optim() to choose initial values for nonlinear models in the package nls or nlme, however, I am puzzled by the actual implementation.
Take an example using COVID data from Alachua, FL:
dat=data.frame(x=seq(1,10,1), y=c(27.9,23.1,24.6,33.0,48.0,136.4,243.4,396.7,519.9,602.8))
x are time points and y is the number of people infected per 10,000 people
Now, if I wanted to fit a four-parameter logistic model in nls, I could use
n1 <- nls(y ~ SSfpl(x, A, B, M, S), data = dat)
But now imagine that parameter estimation is highly sensitive to the initial values so I want to optimize my approach. How would this be achieved?
The way I have thought to try is as follows
fun_to_optim <- function(data, guess){
x = data$x
y = data$y
A = guess[1]
B = guess[2]
M = guess[3]
S = guess[4]
y = A + (B-A)/(1+exp((M-x)/S))
return(-sum(y)) }
optim(fn=fun_to_optim, data=dat,
par=c(10,10,10,10),
method="Nelder-Mead")
The result from optim() is wrong but I cannot see my error. Thank you for any assistance.
The main issue is that you're not computing/returning the sum of squares from your objective function. However: I think you really have it backwards. Using nls() with SSfpl is about the best you're going to do in terms of optimization: it has sensible heuristics for picking starting values (SS stands for "self-starting"), and it provides a gradient function for the optimizer. It's not impossible that, with a considerable amount of work, you could find better heuristics for picking starting values for a particular system, but in general switching from nls to optim + Nelder-Mead will leave you worse off than when you started (illustration below).
fun_to_optim <- function(data, guess){
x = data$x
y = data$y
A = guess[1]
B = guess[2]
M = guess[3]
S = guess[4]
y_pred = A + (B-A)/(1+exp((M-x)/S))
return(sum((y-y_pred)^2))
}
Fit optim() with (1) your suggested starting values; (2) better starting values that are somewhere nearer the correct values (you could get most of these values by knowing the geometry of the function — e.g. A is the left asymptote, B is the right asymptote, M is the midpoint, S is the scale); (3) same as #2 but using BFGS rather than Nelder-Mead.
opt1 <- optim(fn=fun_to_optim, data=dat,
par=c(A=10,B=10,M=10,S=10),
method="Nelder-Mead")
opt2 <- optim(fn=fun_to_optim, data=dat,
par=c(A=10,B=500,M=10,S=1),
method = "Nelder-Mead")
opt3 <- optim(fn=fun_to_optim, data=dat,
par=c(A=10,B=500,M=10,S=1),
method = "BFGS")
Results:
xvec <- seq(1,10,length=101)
plot(y~x, data=dat)
lines(xvec, predict(n1, newdata=data.frame(x=xvec)))
p1 <- with(as.list(opt1$par), A + (B-A)/(1+exp((M-xvec)/S)))
lines(xvec, p1, col=2)
p2 <- with(as.list(opt2$par), A + (B-A)/(1+exp((M-xvec)/S)))
lines(xvec, p2, col=4)
p3 <- with(as.list(opt3$par), A + (B-A)/(1+exp((M-xvec)/S)))
lines(xvec, p3, col=6)
legend("topleft", col=c(1,2,4,6), lty=1,
legend=c("nls","NM (bad start)", "NM", "BFGS"))
nls and good starting values + BFGS overlap, and provide a good fit
optim/Nelder-Mead from bad starting values is absolutely terrible — converges on a constant line
optim/N-M from good starting values gets a reasonable fit, but obviously worse; I haven't analyzed why it gets stuck there.

confidence interval around predicted value from complex inverse function

I'm trying to get a 95% confidence interval around some predicted values, but am not capable of achieving this.
Basically, I estimated a growth curve like this:
set.seed(123)
dat=data.frame(size=rnorm(50,10,3),age=rnorm(50,5,2))
S <- function(t,ts,C,K) ((C*K)/(2*pi))*sin(2*pi*(t-ts))
sommers <- function(t,Linf,K,t0,ts,C)
Linf*(1-exp(-K*(t-t0)-S(t,ts,C,K)+S(t0,ts,C,K)))
model <- nls(size~sommers(age,Linf,K,t0,ts,C),data=dat,
start=list(Linf=10,K=4.7,t0=2.2,C=0.9,ts=0.1))
I have independent size measurements, for which I would like to predict the age. Therefore, the inverse of the function, which is not very straightforward, I calculated like this:
model.out=coef(model)
S.out <- function(t)
((model.out[[4]]*model.out[[2]])/(2*pi))*sin(2*pi*(t-model.out[[5]]))
sommers.out <- function(t)
model.out[[1]]*(1-exp(-model.out[[2]]*(t-model.out[[3]])-S.out(t)+S.out(model.out[[3]])))
inverse = function (f, lower = -100, upper = 100) {
function (y) uniroot((function (x) f(x) - y), lower = lower, upper = upper)[1]
}
sommers.inverse = inverse(sommers.out, 0, 25)
x= sommers.inverse(10) #this works with my complete dataset, but not with this fake one
Although this works fine, I need to know the confidence interval (95%) around this estimate (x). For linear models there is for example "predict(... confidence=)". I could also bootstrap the function somehow to get the quantiles associated with the parameters (didn't find how), to then use the extremes of those to calculate the maximum and minimum values predictable. But that doesn't really look like the good way of doing this....
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
EDIT after answer:
So this worked (explained in the book of Ben Bolker, see answer):
vmat = mvrnorm(1000, mu = coef(mfit), Sigma = vcov(mfit))
dist = numeric(1000)
for (i in 1:1000) {dist[i] = sommers_inverse(9.938,vmat[i,])}
quantile(dist, c(0.025, 0.975))
On the rather bad fake data I gave, this works of course rather horrible. But on the real data (which I have a problem recreating), this is ok!
Unless I'm mistaken, you're going to have to use either regular (parametric) bootstrapping or a method called either "population predictive intervals" (e.g., see section 5 of chapter 7 of Bolker 2008), which assumes that the sampling distributions of your parameters are multivariate Normal. However, I think you may have bigger problems, unless I've somehow messed up your model in adapting it ...
Generate data (note that random data may actually bad for testing your model - see below ...)
set.seed(123)
dat <- data.frame(size=rnorm(50,10,3),age=rnorm(50,5,2))
S <- function(t,ts,C,K) ((C*K)/(2*pi))*sin(2*pi*(t-ts))
sommers <- function(t,Linf,K,t0,ts,C)
Linf*(1-exp(-K*(t-t0)-S(t,ts,C,K)+S(t0,ts,C,K)))
Plot the data and the initial curve estimate:
plot(size~age,data=dat,ylim=c(0,16))
agevec <- seq(0,10,length=1001)
lines(agevec,sommers(agevec,Linf=10,K=4.7,t0=2.2,ts=0.1,C=0.9))
I had trouble with nls so I used minpack.lm::nls.lm, which is slightly more robust. (There are other options here, e.g. calculating the derivatives and providing the gradient function, or using AD Model Builder or Template Model Builder, or using the nls2 package.)
For nls.lm we need a function that returns the residuals:
sommers_fn <- function(par,dat) {
with(c(as.list(par),dat),size-sommers(age,Linf,K,t0,ts,C))
}
library(minpack.lm)
mfit <- nls.lm(fn=sommers_fn,
par=list(Linf=10,K=4.7,t0=2.2,C=0.9,ts=0.1),
dat=dat)
coef(mfit)
## Linf K t0 C ts
## 10.6540185 0.3466328 2.1675244 136.7164179 0.3627371
Here's our problem:
plot(size~age,data=dat,ylim=c(0,16))
lines(agevec,sommers(agevec,Linf=10,K=4.7,t0=2.2,ts=0.1,C=0.9))
with(as.list(coef(mfit)), {
lines(agevec,sommers(agevec,Linf,K,t0,ts,C),col=2)
abline(v=t0,lty=2)
abline(h=c(0,Linf),lty=2)
})
With this kind of fit, the results of the inverse function are going to be extremely unstable, as the inverse function is many-to-one, with the number of inverse values depending sensitively on the parameter values ...
sommers_pred <- function(x,pars) {
with(as.list(pars),sommers(x,Linf,K,t0,ts,C))
}
sommers_pred(6,coef(mfit)) ## s(6)=9.93
sommers_inverse <- function (y, pars, lower = -100, upper = 100) {
uniroot(function(x) sommers_pred(x,pars) -y, c(lower, upper))$root
}
sommers_inverse(9.938, coef(mfit)) ## 0.28
If I pick my interval very carefully I can get back the correct answer ...
sommers_inverse(9.938, coef(mfit), 5.5, 6.2)
Maybe your model will be better behaved with more realistic data. I hope so ...

linear regression using lm() - surprised by the result

I used a linear regression on data I have, using the lm function. Everything works (no error message), but I'm somehow surprised by the result: I am under the impression R "misses" a group of points, i.e. the intercept and slope are not the best fit. For instance, I am referring to the group of points at coordinates x=15-25,y=0-20.
My questions:
is there a function to compare fit with "expected" coefficients and "lm-calculated" coefficients?
have I made a silly mistake when coding, leading the lm to do
that?
Following some answers: additionnal information on x and y
x and y are both visual estimates of disease symptoms. There is the same uncertainty on both of them.
The data and code are here:
x1=c(24.0,23.9,23.6,21.6,21.0,20.8,22.4,22.6,
21.6,21.2,19.0,19.4,21.1,21.5,21.5,20.1,20.1,
20.1,17.2,18.6,21.5,18.2,23.2,20.4,19.2,22.4,
18.8,17.9,19.1,17.9,19.6,18.1,17.6,17.4,17.5,
17.5,25.2,24.4,25.6,24.3,24.6,24.3,29.4,29.4,
29.1,28.5,27.2,27.9,31.5,31.5,31.5,27.8,31.2,
27.4,28.8,27.9,27.6,26.9,28.0,28.0,33.0,32.0,
34.2,34.0,32.6,30.8)
y1=c(100.0,95.5,93.5,100.0,98.5,99.5,34.8,
45.8,47.5,17.4,42.6,63.0,6.9,12.1,30.5,
10.5,14.3,41.1, 2.2,20.0,9.8,3.5,0.5,3.5,5.7,
3.1,19.2,6.4, 1.2, 4.5, 5.7, 3.1,19.2, 6.4,
1.2,4.5,81.5,70.5,91.5,75.0,59.5,73.3,66.5,
47.0,60.5,47.5,33.0,62.5,87.0,86.0,77.0,
86.0,83.0,78.5,83.0,83.5,73.0,69.5,82.5,78.5,
84.0,93.5,83.5,96.5,96.0,97.5)
## x11()
plot(x1,y1,xlim=c(0,35),ylim=c(0,100))
# linear regression
reg_lin=lm(y1 ~ x1)
abline(reg_lin,lty="solid", col="royalblue")
text(12.5,25,labels="R result",col="royalblue", cex=0.85)
text(12.5,20,labels=bquote(y== .(5.26)*x - .(76)),col="royalblue", cex=0.85)
# result I would have imagined
abline(a=-150,b=8,lty="dashed", col="red")
text(27.5,25,labels="What I think is better",col="red", cex=0.85)
text(27.5,20,labels=bquote(y== .(8)*x - .(150)),col="red", cex=0.85)
Try this:
reg_lin_int <- reg_lin$coefficients[1]
reg_lin_slp <- reg_lin$coefficients[2]
sum((y1 - (reg_lin_int + reg_lin_slp*x1)) ^ 2)
# [1] 39486.33
sum((y1 - (-150 + 8 * x1)) ^ 2)
# [1] 55583.18
The sum of squared residuals is lower under the lm fit line. This is to be expected, as reg_lin_int and reg_lin_slp are guaranteed to produce the minimal total squared error.
Intuitively, we know estimators under squared loss functions are sensitive to outliers. It's "missing" the group at the bottom because it gets closer to the group at the top left that's much further away--and squared distance gives these points more weight.
In fact, if we use Least Absolute Deviations regression (i.e., specify an absolute loss function instead of a square), the result is much closer to your guess:
library(quantreg)
lad_reg <- rq(y1 ~ x1)
(Pro tip: use lwd to make your graphs much more readable)
What gets even closer to what you had in mind is Total Least Squares, as mentioned by #nongkrong and #MikeWilliamson. Here is the result of TLS on your sample:
v <- prcomp(cbind(x1, y1))$rotation
bbeta <- v[-ncol(v), ncol(v)] / v[1, 1]
inter <- mean(y1) - bbeta * mean(x1)
You got a nice answer already, but maybe this is also helpful:
As you know, OLS minimizes the sum of squared errors in y-direction. This implies that the uncertainty of your x-values is negligible, which is often the case. But possibly it's not the case for your data. If we assume that uncertainties in x and y are equal and do Deming regression we get a fit more similar to what you expected.
library(MethComp)
dem_reg <- Deming(x1, y1)
abline(dem_reg[1:2], col = "green")
You don't provide detailed information about your data. Thus, this might be useful or not.

Error in Gradient Descent Calculation

I tried to write a function to calculate gradient descent for a linear regression model. However the answers I was getting does not match the answers I get using the normal equation method.
My sample data is:
df <- data.frame(c(1,5,6),c(3,5,6),c(4,6,8))
with c(4,6,8) being the y values.
lm_gradient_descent <- function(df,learning_rate, y_col=length(df),scale=TRUE){
n_features <- length(df) #n_features is the number of features in the data set
#using mean normalization to scale features
if(scale==TRUE){
for (i in 1:(n_features)){
df[,i] <- (df[,i]-mean(df[,i]))/sd(df[,i])
}
}
y_data <- df[,y_col]
df[,y_col] <- NULL
par <- rep(1,n_features)
df <- merge(1,df)
data_mat <- data.matrix(df)
#we need a temp_arr to store each iteration of parameter values so that we can do a
#simultaneous update
temp_arr <- rep(0,n_features)
diff <- 1
while(diff>0.0000001){
for (i in 1:(n_features)){
temp_arr[i] <- par[i]-learning_rate*sum((data_mat%*%par-y_data)*df[,i])/length(y_data)
}
diff <- par[1]-temp_arr[1]
print(diff)
par <- temp_arr
}
return(par)
}
Running this function,
lm_gradient_descent(df,0.0001,,0)
the results I got were
c(0.9165891,0.6115482,0.5652970)
when I use the normal equation method, I get
c(2,1,0).
Hope someone can shed some light on where I went wrong in this function.
You used the stopping criterion
old parameters - new parameters <= 0.0000001
First of all I think there's an abs() missing if you want to use this criterion (though my ignorance of R may be at fault).
But even if you use
abs(old parameters - new parameters) <= 0.0000001
this is not a good stopping criterion: it only tells you that progress has slowed down, not that it's already sufficiently accurate. Try instead simply to iterate for a fixed number of iterations. Unfortunately it's not that easy to give a good, generally applicable stopping criterion for gradient descent here.
It seems that you have not implemented a bias term. In a linear model like this, you always want to have an additional additive constant, i.e., your model should be like
w_0 + w_1*x_1 + ... + w_n*x_n.
Without the w_0 term, you usually won't get a good fit.
I know this is a couple of weeks old at this point but I'm going to take a stab at for several reasons, namely
Relatively new to R so deciphering your code and rewriting it is good practice for me
Working on a different Gradient Descent problem so this is all fresh to me
Need the stackflow points and
As far as I can tell you never got a working answer.
First, regarding your data structures. You start with a dataframe, rename a column, strip out a vector, then strip out a matrix. It would be a lot easier to just start with an X matrix (capitalized since its component 'features' are referred to as xsubscript i) and a y solution vector.
X <- cbind(c(1,5,6),c(3,5,6))
y <- c(4,6,8)
We can easily see what the desired solutions are, with and without scaling by fitting a linear fit model. (NOTE We only scale X/features and not y/solutions)
> lm(y~X)
Call:
lm(formula = y ~ X)
Coefficients:
(Intercept) X1 X2
-4 -1 3
> lm(y~scale(X))
Call:
lm(formula = y ~ scale(X))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) scale(X)1 scale(X)2
6.000 -2.646 4.583
With regards to your code, one of the beauties of R is that it can perform matrix multiplication which is significantly faster than using loops.
lm_gradient_descent <- function(X, y, learning_rate, scale=TRUE){
if(scale==TRUE){X <- scale(X)}
X <- cbind(1, X)
theta <- rep(0, ncol(X)) #your old temp_arr
diff <- 1
old.error <- sum( (X %*% theta - y)^2 ) / (2*length(y))
while(diff>0.000000001){
theta <- theta - learning_rate * t(X) %*% (X %*% theta - y) / length(y)
new.error <- sum( (X %*% theta - y)^2 ) / (2*length(y))
diff <- abs(old.error - new.error)
old.error <- new.error
}
return(theta)
}
And to show it works...
> lm_gradient_descent(X, y, .01, 0)
[,1]
[1,] -3.9360685
[2,] -0.9851775
[3,] 2.9736566
vs expected of (-4, -1, 3)
For what its worth while I agree with #cfh that I would prefer a loop with a defined number of iterations, I'm actually not sure you need the abs function. If diff < 0 then your function is not converging.
Finally rather than using something like old.error and new.error I'd suggest using a a vector that records all errors. You can then plot that vector to see how quickly your function converges.

Fit distribution to given frequency values in R

I have frequency values changing with the time (x axis units), as presented on the picture below. After some normalization these values may be seen as data points of a density function for some distribution.
Q: Assuming that these frequency points are from Weibull distribution T, how can I fit best Weibull density function to the points so as to infer the distribution T parameters from it?
sample <- c(7787,3056,2359,1759,1819,1189,1077,1080,985,622,648,518,
611,1037,727,489,432,371,1125,69,595,624)
plot(1:length(sample), sample, type = "l")
points(1:length(sample), sample)
Update.
To prevent from being misunderstood, I would like to add little more explanation. By saying I have frequency values changing with the time (x axis units) I mean I have data which says that I have:
7787 realizations of value 1
3056 realizations of value 2
2359 realizations of value 3 ... etc.
Some way towards my goal (incorrect one, as I think) would be to create a set of these realizations:
# Loop to simulate values
set.values <- c()
for(i in 1:length(sample)){
set.values <<- c(set.values, rep(i, times = sample[i]))
}
hist(set.values)
lines(1:length(sample), sample)
points(1:length(sample), sample)
and use fitdistr on the set.values:
f2 <- fitdistr(set.values, 'weibull')
f2
Why I think it is incorrect way and why I am looking for a better solution in R?
in the distribution fitting approach presented above it is assumed that set.values is a complete set of my realisations from the distribution T
in my original question I know the points from the first part of the density curve - I do not know its tail and I want to estimate the tail (and the whole density function)
Here is a better attempt, like before it uses optim to find the best value constrained to a set of values in a box (defined by the lower and upper vectors in the optim call). Notice it scales x and y as part of the optimization in addition to the Weibull distribution shape parameter, so we have 3 parameters to optimize over.
Unfortunately when using all the points it pretty much always finds something on the edges of the constraining box which indicates to me that maybe Weibull is maybe not a good fit for all of the data. The problem is the two points - they ares just too large. You see the attempted fit to all data in the first plot.
If I drop those first two points and just fit the rest, we get a much better fit. You see this in the second plot. I think this is a good fit, it is in any case a local minimum in the interior of the constraining box.
library(optimx)
sample <- c(60953,7787,3056,2359,1759,1819,1189,1077,1080,985,622,648,518,
611,1037,727,489,432,371,1125,69,595,624)
t.sample <- 0:22
s.fit <- sample[3:23]
t.fit <- t.sample[3:23]
wx <- function(param) {
res <- param[2]*dweibull(t.fit*param[3],shape=param[1])
return(res)
}
minwx <- function(param){
v <- s.fit-wx(param)
sqrt(sum(v*v))
}
p0 <- c(1,200,1/20)
paramopt <- optim(p0,minwx,gr=NULL,lower=c(0.1,100,0.01),upper=c(1.1,5000,1))
popt <- paramopt$par
popt
rms <- paramopt$value
tit <- sprintf("Weibull - Shape:%.3f xscale:%.1f yscale:%.5f rms:%.1f",popt[1],popt[2],popt[3],rms)
plot(t.sample[2:23], sample[2:23], type = "p",col="darkred")
lines(t.fit, wx(popt),col="blue")
title(main=tit)
You can directly calculate the maximum likelihood parameters, as described here.
# Defining the error of the implicit function
k.diff <- function(k, vec){
x2 <- seq(length(vec))
abs(k^-1+weighted.mean(log(x2), w = sample)-weighted.mean(log(x2),
w = x2^k*sample))
}
# Setting the error to "quite zero", fulfilling the equation
k <- optimize(k.diff, vec=sample, interval=c(0.1,5), tol=10^-7)$min
# Calculate lambda, given k
l <- weighted.mean(seq(length(sample))^k, w = sample)
# Plot
plot(density(rep(seq(length(sample)),sample)))
x <- 1:25
lines(x, dweibull(x, shape=k, scale= l))
Assuming the data are from a Weibull distribution, you can get an estimate of the shape and scale parameter like this:
sample <- c(7787,3056,2359,1759,1819,1189,1077,1080,985,622,648,518,
611,1037,727,489,432,371,1125,69,595,624)
f<-fitdistr(sample, 'weibull')
f
If you are not sure whether it is distributed Weibull, I would recommend using the ks.test. This tests whether your data is from a hypothesised distribution. Given your knowledge of the nature of the data, you could test for a few selected distributions and see which one works best.
For your example this would look like this:
ks = ks.test(sample, "pweibull", shape=f$estimate[1], scale=f$estimate[2])
ks
The p-value is insignificant, hence you do not reject the hypothesis that the data is from a Weibull distribution.
Update: The histograms of either the Weibull or exponential look like a good match to your data. I think the exponential distribution gives you a better fit. Pareto distribution is another option.
f<-fitdistr(sample, 'weibull')
z<-rweibull(10000, shape= f$estimate[1],scale= f$estimate[2])
hist(z)
f<-fitdistr(sample, 'exponential')
z = rexp(10000, f$estimate[1])
hist(z)

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